US Election Fever: Harris's Unexpected Rise, Trump Faces Challenges

The recent presidential candidate debate in the United States has attracted widespread attention. This is the first direct confrontation between the two main candidates and may be the only debate before the election. The previous round of debates had some influence on the direction of the election. In this debate, the market generally believed that Harris performed better than expected, while Trump had a mediocre performance.

After the debate, the betting market reacted quickly. Within just two hours, the contract price for Harris's election rose from $53 to $57, while Trump fell from $52 to $47, further widening the gap. This change reflects that more people are optimistic about Harris's victory, confirming her outstanding performance.

Harris has performed well on multiple issues. She has shown empathy on the abortion issue, shared personal experiences on racial issues, and emphasized future development plans. In contrast, Trump mainly focuses on traditional issues such as illegal immigration and tariff policies, with discussions lacking innovation, making it difficult to attract moderate voters.

Subsequently, Harris invited Trump to debate again on social media, attempting to win more votes. This move has attracted considerable attention.

Recently, Harris's campaign office in Arizona was shot at. At the time of the incident, the office was empty, and there were no casualties. The police initially determined it to be a property crime. There are different interpretations of this event in the market: some believe it was a retaliatory act by Trump supporters, while others suspect it was a self-directed performance by Harris to divert attention.

Latest data shows that Harris's campaign spending far exceeds that of the Trump camp. In August, Harris's average daily expenditure was $7.5 million, while Trump spent $2.6 million. In terms of fundraising, Harris is also far ahead. These funds will be used to expand the team, increase publicity efforts, and more.

As a woman from a minority and immigrant family, Harris possesses multiple identity advantages. She was born into a highly educated immigrant family, graduated from a prestigious university, and served as a professional lawyer and California's first female Attorney General. However, her resume is also controversial, including some decisions made during her time as a prosecutor, as well as accusations of being ungrateful towards her predecessors.

Current polls show Harris slightly leading Trump by 1.6%. The two have received approximately 226 and 219 electoral votes, respectively, from the confirmed electoral votes. Harris needs 44 electoral votes to win, while Trump needs 51.

Comparing the policies of the two, Harris's "moderate" approach may have a smaller impact on the market. Her fiscal expansion policy may increase short-term bond issuance, which is unfavorable for bonds but supports the dollar. The tax increase policy may suppress U.S. stocks. Trump's policies are relatively favorable for U.S. stocks, cyclical commodities, and digital currencies, but may interfere with the dollar.

In the next two months, Trump still has a chance to overtake. The U.S. election uses the "Electoral College system", and the candidate who receives the most popular votes may not necessarily be elected. Currently, the election situation in the swing states is quite intense, and the final result remains uncertain.