Crypto Assets market is experiencing a downward fluctuation, but signs of capital inflow are gradually emerging.

This week, the Crypto Assets market overall showed a volatile downward trend, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. The market capitalization of stablecoins began to grow rapidly, with USDT reaching 142.7 billion and USDC reaching 57.2 billion, increasing by 0.49% and 2.32% respectively, indicating that institutional funds are re-entering the market, primarily driven by US capital.

Although recent economic data and the Federal Reserve's attitude have eased concerns about an economic recession, and the market has begun pricing in three interest rate cuts this year starting in May, it has not improved market sentiment. On the contrary, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin caused by repeated policy changes have intensified market panic, and most altcoins have underperformed the benchmark index.

Bullish Target Analysis

BTC

Bitcoin has recently performed poorly, mainly influenced by the following factors:

1. Macroscopic level: Trump's tariff policy raises concerns about inflation, the US-Ukraine mineral agreement is shelved, and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts increases.

2. Bitcoin itself: After a period of high-level consolidation, some long-term holders and large holders began to sell, lacking new positive news and capital inflow, and Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserves fell short of expectations.

3. Institutional Sell-off: Institutions led by BlackRock continue to reduce their holdings.

However, there are also reasons to be bullish:

1. Economic data and the Federal Reserve's stance have alleviated recession concerns, and the market is beginning to price in three rate cuts this year.

2. On-chain data shows that most holders did not sell during this decline, but instead accumulated.

S token

Despite the S token's decline this week following the market, Sonic's fundamentals remain stable:

1. TVL increased by 9.23%, major DeFi projects have all achieved growth.

2. The on-chain project APY remains high, with Beets liquidity pool APY reaching 30%.

3. The lending rate rose from 10% to 14%, indicating an increase in borrowing demand.

4. Daily income of $210,000, ranked 6th in public chains, high DeFi activity.

AAVE

AAVE has risen by 21.38% this week against the trend, showing outstanding performance:

1. TVL increased by 5.86%, ranking second among the top 20 DeFi projects.

2. Propose optimization governance and token economic model proposals, including buybacks, increasing staking rewards, etc.

3. The White House supports the abolition of DeFi trading reporting rules, which is beneficial for industry development.

BERA

Despite the decline in BERA prices, the on-chain data of Berachain continues to grow:

1. The growth rate of TVL for leading DEXs, lending, and LSD projects has slowed down but is still increasing.

2. Infrared Finance and BEX showed significant growth, with increases of 31.15% and 25.22%, respectively.

3. High APY projects continue to attract users, such as Infrared Finance's WBERA staking APY reaching 120%.

Bearish Target Analysis

APE

1. The NFT and GameFi sectors have lost attention and are being overtaken by Meme tokens for market share.

2. On March 16, 15.37 million APE will be unlocked, accounting for 1.54% of the total locked amount, facing selling pressure.

APT

1. Although the ETF application has been submitted, it has not been included in the crypto assets reserve list mentioned by Trump.

2. On March 12, 11.3 million APT will be unlocked, accounting for 1% of the total locked amount, which may create selling pressure.

MERL

1. TVL dropped significantly by 12.44%, with major ecological projects MerlinSwap and Pell Network decreasing by 34.33% and 87.11%, respectively.

2. The overall performance of BTC ecosystem projects is poor, and the decline of BTC has led to the withdrawal of pledged funds.

3. The coin price has not yet experienced a significant drop, but it may face the risk of a correction.

TON

1. TVL continues to decline, down 10.68% this week.

2. The popularity of on-chain mini-games is declining, and the profit-making effect for users is worsening.

3. The overall SocialFi sector is sluggish, lacking blockbuster projects.

Hot Track Analysis

Aave

1. Propose recommendations for optimizing governance and token economic models, including buybacks, increasing staking rewards, etc.

2. The White House supports the abolition of DeFi trading report rules, which is beneficial for the industry's development.

3. The repurchase plan demonstrates strong financial strength and a diversified income structure.

4. May lead a new wave of buybacks in the DeFi industry.

Berachain

1. TVL increased by 17.21%, reaching 3.449 billion USD, ranking sixth.

2. Mainly relies on high APY to attract users, such as Infrared Finance's WBERA staking APY reaching 120%.

3. The proportion of on-chain staking in circulation is about 30%, with room for growth.

4. The founder stated that they will continue to repurchase shares from early investors to reduce supply.

Important Events Next Week

1. March 12: US February CPI Year-on-Year Announcement
2. March 13: Web3 Amsterdam 2025 Conference

Summary

This week, the crypto assets market has seen a downward trend, with market sentiment being low. However, the growth in market capitalization of stablecoins indicates a sign of capital returning. Some projects, such as Aave and Berachain, have performed well. Investors need to pay attention to on-chain data, policy direction, and the upcoming token unlocking events to seize opportunities and avoid risks.