Ethereum Ten Years: From Niche Hobby to Global Financial Innovation

Today, Ethereum has ushered in its tenth anniversary.

In the past decade, Ethereum has shown remarkable growth potential. Its market capitalization has increased by 3,600 times to reach $450 billion, making it one of the top thirty assets globally by market cap. In contrast, during the same period, Nvidia and Bitcoin's market capitalizations grew by 150 times and 300 times, respectively.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has gradually become one of the world's safest and most reliable financial systems. The funds circulating within the system reach up to a trillion dollars, with the annual transaction volume of stablecoins alone reaching 20 trillion dollars. In addition to this, Ethereum also supports various financial applications such as decentralized exchanges, staking systems, lending protocols, derivatives trading, and NFTs. It is worth noting that in this decade, the Ethereum mainnet has never experienced downtime, outages, or theft incidents.

Looking back, the Ethereum ecosystem has at least given birth to three epoch-making products, each dominating its respective market:

1. Stablecoins: The annual trading volume reaches $28 trillion, with over 70% occurring on the Ethereum network.
2. DAO: In 2016, the world's first DAO was born on Ethereum. Today, over 90% of the world's top DAOs operate within the Ethereum ecosystem.
3. DeFi: In the DeFi boom of 2020, Ethereum became the sole center, with a market share of 95%-99%.

In 2021, when NFTs first gained widespread public attention, Ethereum once again became the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume.

However, this may just be the beginning. The tokenization of US stocks, the tokenization of US debt, the on-chain of physical assets (RWA), and innovations such as AI agents are just getting started.

Although Ethereum has become one of the top 30 assets in the world by market capitalization, surpassing well-known companies like Meta, TSMC, Visa, and Mastercard, this may only be the true starting point. Just like when Apple’s MAC computer broke through 10 million users in 1987, that was not the end, but the beginning of everything.

Currently, Ethereum has about 10 million monthly active users, officially starting its next decade journey.

Ethereum's Growth Potential

1. The total locked value of Ethereum ( TVL ), even if it grows by 100 times, accounts for only 2% of the global financial asset size.

2. After the user base grows by 100 times, Ethereum will still have only 1 billion users. In comparison, both Visa and Mastercard have issued over 3 billion cards.

3. Ethereum's current status is similar to that of Apple computers in 1987, still a gathering place for niche enthusiasts. In 1987, sales of the Mac series computers exceeded 10 million units; as a global shared computer, it is expected that by 2025, Ethereum's monthly active users will also reach about 10 million.

4. Ethereum has become a mature financial system, with hundreds of billions of dollars flowing through it. The annual trading volume of stablecoins alone has reached 20 trillion dollars.

5. The success of stablecoins is expected to be replicated in other "product lines" of Ethereum. From 2016 to 2021, the market capitalization of stablecoins grew from 1 million USD to 100 billion USD, achieving a 1000-fold increase in two years and a 100-fold increase in four years. Similar growth potential may be seen in areas such as tokenization of US Treasuries and tokenization of US stocks.

6. Ethereum is providing alternatives for various mainstream financial products, its capabilities even surpassing traditional financial institutions.

7. Ethereum is driving the tokenization of nearly all mainstream financial products:

   • Dollar Tokenization (Stablecoins): $40 trillion market, currently sized at $300 billion
   • Tokenization of US debt: a $36 trillion market, currently sized at $7 billion
   • Tokenization of US stocks: a $60 trillion market, currently at $500 million.

These fields have the potential to suddenly explode and achieve a hundredfold growth in the coming years.

8. As an emerging global financial system, Ethereum still has at least 100 times of growth potential. Currently, the TVL of Ethereum is only 80 billion dollars, while the total asset scale of the global financial system reaches 400 trillion dollars. Even if Ethereum grows 100 times, it would only account for 2% of the global financial asset scale.

9. Ethereum is not just a "substitute" for the global financial system, it is redefining the concept of finance. This relationship is similar to that of email and traditional postal services. Nowadays, the daily volume of emails sent has surpassed the annual volume of traditional postal mail.

10. Twenty years ago, few people believed that over 90% of human communication would take place on the Internet. Today, similarly, few people believe that in the future, 9% of human funds will circulate on Ethereum.

Ethereum and the Global Financial System Interaction

1. Every crisis in the global financial system could become an opportunity for Ethereum.

2. Ethereum is waiting for every collapse of the mainstream financial system. Such collapses occur almost every month, every year, and in every economic cycle.

3. Economic crises, pandemics, wars, political turmoil, national bankruptcies, currency devaluation, geopolitical conflicts, etc., any significant change in any of the 195 countries worldwide may affect a part or aspect of the global financial system.

4. In the past 100 years, there have been at least 10 major financial crises globally, 8 large-scale deadly pandemics with global impact, and over 30 national bankruptcy events (among which there have been as many as 10 instances of "bankruptcy" due to currency collapse and hyperinflation). In the past 50 years, approximately 15-20 large-scale wars with international influence have also occurred. These events could change the landscape of the financial system and create new market demand for Ethereum.

5. Ethereum is becoming the center of "fringe finance." Approximately 10 countries globally are excluded from the mainstream financial system, with marginalized countries reaching up to 30-50. The ordinary people in these countries need stable currency, merchants need cross-border trade, and the middle class needs to invest in quality stocks. When the mainstream financial system rejects them, Ethereum provides a solution for them.

6. Ethereum is doing what centralized institutions like nations, financial institutions, and internet companies cannot do. Focusing on decentralization is doing the right thing.

7. Ethereum is launching a dimensional attack on the SWIFT system. It has become the largest value network globally outside of SWIFT. In terms of network neutrality, 24/7 availability, transaction fees, cross-border transaction speed, transparency, and the degree of automation in settlement assets, Ethereum significantly outperforms SWIFT. With major countries like the United States starting to embrace Ethereum in compliance and regulation, it is possible that, in 30 years, Ethereum will replace SWIFT as the largest value network in the world.

8. Nearly 20 countries are subject to sanctions and restrictions from the SWIFT system. In contrast, Ethereum is permissionless, allowing any country and individual to trade on it.

9. Athens and Sparta, Android and Apple, Ethereum and the global financial system, they are two sides of the same coin in this world; the absence of either side is a defect.

10. The probability of Ethereum's success is very high. Although mainstream financial systems will not suddenly collapse, there will continue to be localized breakdowns. Each breakdown is beneficial for the development of the new financial system and may become a good opportunity for Ethereum's rapid expansion.

The Core Advantages of Ethereum

1. The core advantages of Ethereum include:

   • Sufficient neutrality: Like Bitcoin, it is highly decentralized and not controlled by any single country or organization.
   • Excellent security: The mainnet has been running for ten years with a market value of $450 billion, and there have been no major outages, downtimes, or theft incidents.
   • Unique culture: including DAO governance, early user airdrop mechanisms, transparent trading, emphasis on privacy protection, etc., this culture has nurtured innovative business models.

2. Since the mainnet launch on July 30, 2015, Ethereum has never experienced downtime, outages, or theft.

3. Ethereum is a true public good. Unlike potentially polluted air, prohibited water, requisitioned land, blocked roads, or banned internet accounts, Ethereum exists like the sun and the moon, an entity that humanity cannot intervene in, and is a truly publicly accessible resource for everyone.

4. Anyone can deploy, run, verify, and use programs on the Ethereum network without relying on traditional servers or company permissions.

5. Ethereum is a decentralized financial system, a public good, the "oil" of the digital age, a supercomputer shared by all humanity, an immutable global ledger, the largest value network outside of SWIFT, and the infrastructure for a decentralized internet and network nation.

6. In the crypto world, Ethereum is the absolute leader:

   • In 2024, the global transaction volume of stablecoins will reach $28 trillion, with 70% occurring in the Ethereum ecosystem.
   • When NFTs exploded in 2021, Ethereum was the main battlefield, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume.
   • In the 2020 DeFi boom, Ethereum accounted for 95%-99% of the market share.

7. Ethereum is becoming the biggest challenger to the global financial system. It offers a financial system that allows for fair and secure trading without regulation. When a country is excluded from the mainstream financial system, Ethereum becomes one of the best solutions. When businesses and merchants are unable to conduct normal cross-border transactions for various reasons, Ethereum provides a new financial system. When individuals cannot conveniently engage in stock or real estate transactions in other countries, Ethereum offers a financial system that does not require regulation.

8. Ethereum is the source of innovation in the cryptocurrency industry, and almost all large-scale blockchain applications are centered around it:

   • During the DeFi boom in 2020, Ethereum accounted for 95%-99% of the market share.
   • During the NFT boom in 2021, Ethereum accounted for over 90% of the annual trading volume.
   • By 2025, when stablecoins are widely adopted, the global annual trading volume of stablecoins will reach $28 trillion, with over 70% occurring on Ethereum.

9. In long-term competition, Ethereum has demonstrated the strongest stability. Over the past decade, the Ethereum mainnet has never experienced a large-scale outage or downtime. In contrast, other public chains like Solana and Sui have encountered network issues multiple times.

10. Just as the AI industry cannot do without Nvidia, and the mobile phone industry cannot do without Apple, the cryptocurrency industry cannot do without Ethereum.

Comparison between Ethereum and Bitcoin

1. Bitcoin is just a currency system, while Ethereum is not only a currency system but also a financial system, an internet system, and a supercomputer shared by all humanity.

2. Many well-known figures, such as entrepreneur Mark Cuban, Real Vision CEO Raoul, and 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino, have publicly stated their belief that the value of Ethereum will surpass that of Bitcoin.

3. Renowned investor Cathie Wood is one of the most optimistic celebrities about the future prospects of Ethereum. She predicts that by 2032, the price of Ethereum could reach $166,000, with a market cap of $20 trillion. This means that, given the current market cap of $440 billion, Ethereum still has nearly 50 times the potential for growth.

4. The scarcity of Ethereum is comparable to that of Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum's inflation rate is lower than that of major currencies such as Bitcoin, gold, the US dollar, and the euro. In 2024, Ethereum's inflation rate is between -0.2% and 0.5%, while Bitcoin is at 1.7%, gold is about 1.5%, the euro is 2.5%, and the US dollar is 3.3%. The inflation rates of certain national currencies are astonishingly high, such as Argentina at 250% and Zimbabwe at 560%.

5. Bitcoin reached a price of $3,500 and a market cap of $62 billion at the end of its first decade. In comparison, Ethereum reached a price of $3,800 and a market cap of $460 billion at the end of its first decade.

6. Ethereum has come close to surpassing Bitcoin's market value multiple times. In mid-2017, Ethereum's market value reached 80% of Bitcoin's; in mid-May 2021, this ratio reached 48%. Currently, Ethereum's market value is about 20% of Bitcoin's.

7. There is a view that without Bitcoin, the crypto industry can still exist; but without Ethereum, the crypto industry will lose its meaning.

8. From August 2015 to January 2016, the price of Ethereum remained below $0.3 for a long time. Today, Ethereum is valued at $3900, an increase of over 13000 times. During the same period, the increase of Bitcoin was several hundred times.

9. Ethereum is launching three price growth engines: the US Ethereum spot ETF, Ethereum strategic reserve institutions,