Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC Fluctuates Higher, Tariff Dispute Gradually Eases

This week, the BTC market showed a high-level fluctuation trend. The opening price of BTC was 108386.44 USD, and the closing price was 109217.98 USD, with an increase of 0.77% over the week. The highest price reached 110590 USD, the lowest price was 105119.70 USD, and the amplitude was 5.05%. It is worth noting that the trading volume continued to shrink this week.

The overall market performance has been relatively flat over the past week. Macroeconomic events remain key factors driving the price movement of BTC, but there have been no significant changes beyond expectations in employment data, new legislation, or tariff policies.

One thing that has garnered significant attention in the market is that an ancient whale account holding over 80,000 BTC, which had been silent for 14 years, has started to become active, putting some pressure on market sentiment. As the price of BTC approaches historical highs again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their positions may re-emerge.

However, some positive signals are also emerging. After more than a month of silence, the activity of funds in the market has started to increase. This activity may resonate with off-exchange funds, potentially driving BTC to start the fourth wave of the current bull market.

Macroeconomics and Policy Trends

This Wednesday, three major macro events intertwined to impact the crypto market.

First, the U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. Data released on July 3 showed that the unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. A deeper analysis reveals that although private sector jobs decreased, state government positions saw a significant increase. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 28 was 233,000, also lower than the expected 240,000. On one hand, this data alleviates market concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy, while on the other hand, it reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July, lowering it to 4.7%. Overall, the employment data has a relatively neutral impact on the market.

Secondly, the President of the United States officially signed a new bill on July 4, marking the most significant political achievement of his current term. The bill includes large-scale tax cuts, substantial increases in government budgets, and spending cuts. In the long run, this may further undermine the credit of the dollar, increase the debt burden, and reduce government revenue. However, from a medium to short-term perspective, it will undoubtedly have a significant stimulating effect on the economy. Despite considerable public controversy, the financial markets overall maintain a positive attitude towards this, directly driving the S&P 500 Index to a new high this week.

Finally, the "tariff war" has fully entered its third phase. On July 5, the U.S. President announced that he has signed a "tariff letter" targeting 12 countries, adopting a "one-price" national tax rate, with the final tax rate range raised to 10%-70%. These new tax rates are likely to be officially implemented on August 1, bringing new uncertainties to global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. Since the highest tax rate exceeds the expected 50%, the market reacted negatively, but given that it had already been anticipated, the actual impact is relatively limited.

According to our observations, the current state of the US economy shows characteristics of either a soft landing or no landing, with expectations of interest rate cuts beginning in September. The new legislation is expected to have a positive impact on the US stock market in the short term, as the tariff conflict is about to conclude. Against this backdrop, the US stock market has once again reached a new historical high. In the short term, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, the US stock market may continue to rise. However, it is important to note that the current valuation of the US stock market is not low, and we need to closely monitor changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariff policies on economic and employment data.

Crypto Market Analysis

Compared to the past few weeks, due to the strong continuity of macro market information, the Bitcoin market has performed relatively calmly this week, but changes are brewing internally.

On July 2, Bitcoin once again validated the "first bullish uptrend line." For most of the week, Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $108,000, and it launched the third attempt at the historical high of $110,000 in the past 8 months.

The Bitcoin retail market shows clear differentiation. The enthusiasm for trading on exchanges has decreased, while on-chain activity and the number of new addresses remain mediocre. However, the trading heat in the Bitcoin spot ETF market remains strong, continuing to record net inflows of funds.

At present, the price and trend of BTC are mainly influenced by the funding from the BTC spot ETF channel, with its correlation to the Nasdaq index rising to 0.94.

Some potential variables are beginning to emerge. After the on-site lending rates fell to a low, they started to rebound, and the 30-day average premium rate in the contract market also began to rise after hitting the bottom. Of course, the sustainability of these two indicators needs further observation. In our June monthly report, we predicted that the market would make another leap in the third quarter. If the funds for the Bitcoin spot ETF continue to flow in, while on-site funds start to resonate with long positions, then the fourth wave of increase may arrive soon.

Fund Flow Analysis

After a significant rebound in April and May, capital inflows have started to show divergence. The inflow of funds through stablecoin channels has begun to weaken, while the capital for Bitcoin spot ETF channels remains relatively strong and stable.

This week, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF channels was $790 million, a decrease from last week, but still maintaining a high level.

The stablecoin channel inflow is $1.574 billion, which is basically flat compared to last week.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off Analysis

As the price approaches $110,000 again, long-term holders seem to be starting to reduce their holdings.

From the scale of inflows to the exchange, the total selling volume of both short-term and long-term holders has continued to decrease this week, providing strong support for the upward movement of BTC prices.

However, this week an ancient wallet holding over 80,000 BTC showed unusual activity. The significant movement from this dormant wallet, which had been inactive for 14 years, led to a substantial increase in on-chain liquidation value.

According to the current trend, once BTC breaks through $110,000 and triggers the fourth wave of rise, the selling from long-term holders and older BTC may be activated again. These sell-offs will jointly determine the new price level and height of the rise for BTC along with the buying pressure.

cyclical indicators

According to a certain data engine, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.625, currently in an upward phase.