#打榜优质内容# Today's market interpretation

1 Policy → Expectations → Capital: The path logic is clear but not immediately realized. The executive order has changed the legal boundaries of "whether to allow," theoretically expanding the potential investable capital pool (the scale of retirement funds is enormous), but the process from "allowing" to "capital entering in bulk" requires multiple steps including product design, regulatory details, compliance review, and trustee approval, which may take months to years. The short-term market prices in the "expectation" in advance, leading to a price increase, but the true long-term increment still requires patient waiting.
2 ETH in this round is mainly driven by ETF high-frequency funds. Data shows significant daily net inflows into Ethereum-related ETFs, with institutional buying directly pushing the price from $3.7k to $4.2k; if inflows continue, the resistance above ETH will be further weakened, but if there is a short-term net outflow, the speed of price retracement will also be amplified.
The upward movement of BTC requires a "volume + persistent inflow from ETFs" double confirmation. Bitcoin relies on a broader institutional/retail ecosystem (including spot ETFs, custodial institutions, and corporate inventories), and short-term capital fluctuations will lead to range oscillations; sustained structural upward movement requires stable net inflows from ETFs accompanied by off-exchange/corporate replacement buying.
4 Short-term Risk Points:
① 401(k) Path regulations delayed or challenged by judicial/regulatory actions; ② ETF inflows experienced "intraday profit-taking" leading to a reversal in funding rhythm;
③ If there are adverse fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment (CPI, interest rates, US dollar), it will quickly suppress risk assets. Any of the aforementioned trigger points will amplify the pullback.