XRP has fallen for three consecutive days and is in a dilemma! The approval of the Spot ETF is the key to breaking the deadlock, while Bitcoin regains upward momentum thanks to favorable policies | Crypto market dynamics

XRP price continues to be weak, falling another 1.17% to $3.1880 last Sunday (August 10), experiencing three consecutive declines, significantly underperforming the overall crypto market (+1.41%). The market generally believes that the uncertainty of XRP Spot ETF approval is the main reason for the price suppression, despite Ripple's legal settlement with the SEC. Focus has shifted to the timing of BlackRock's potential iShares XRP trust application, with analysts pointing out that waiting for SEC approval of the general listing standards for crypto ETFs may be part of their strategy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) benefited from favourable information regarding U.S. pension policies and inflows into Spot ETFs, strongly rebounding and breaking through the $121,000 mark. The short-term market direction will depend on the dynamics of the XRP/BTC Spot ETF, U.S. inflation data, and legislative progress.

XRP Predicament: Spot ETF Approval Becomes the Key to Breakthrough

• Continued decline underperforms the market, ETF fog shrouds: XRP continues its downward trend, closing at $3.1880 on Sunday, with the weekly decline widening. Even the Favourable Information from the settlement between Ripple and the SEC failed to boost the coin price, highlighting market concerns about the XRP ETF approval timeline. In contrast, tokens like SOL, which benefit from expectations of capital inflows from spot ETFs, continue to rise.
• The timing of BlackRock's application raises speculation, with general standards being key: There has been ongoing debate regarding the timing of BlackRock's application for the iShares XRP Spot ETF. Nate Geraci, president of wealth management firm Nova Dius, hinted that BlackRock may be waiting to submit its applications for the XRP and SOL Spot ETFs after the SEC approves the general listing standards for crypto Spot ETFs. Currently, several exchanges have submitted 19b-4 rule change applications aimed at establishing a fast-track listing process for compliant commodity trust shares (such as crypto ETFs), potentially shortening the review period.
• Pending ETF approvals may become a prelude, October ushers in a key node: Applications for diversified crypto ETFs such as Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC) and Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), which include XRP, have been submitted, and their review results may pave the way for the XRP exclusive Spot ETF. Although the SEC has approved its rule changes, it has delayed the listing through a "stay order". The key review deadlines for GDLC and BITW are in October.
• XRP Price Technical Outlook: If it breaks through the August 8 high of $3.3830, it is expected to attack the resistance level of $3.5 and then challenge the historical high of $3.6606 on July 18 (Gate data). If it loses the support at $3.2, it may drop to the August 5 low of $2.9184 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Bitcoin Strong Rebound: Driven by Favorable Policies and Capital Inflows

• ETF capital inflow reversed, demand outlook improved: After four consecutive days of capital outflow, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market recorded a net inflow of $253.2 million for the week of August 6, injecting upward momentum into BTC. On Sunday (August 10), BTC surged 2.66%, closing at $119,047; on Monday (August 11), it even briefly surpassed $121,000, reaching a new high since July 14.
• Retirement Fund Policy Unleashed, Potential Demand Huge: The executive order signed last week, "Providing Alternative Asset Democratization Pathways for 401(k) Investors," has become a significant piece of favourable information. This policy will allow over 90 million participants in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans to include encryption currency assets in their retirement investment portfolios. Market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that this move has cleared the way for part of the funds from the $8.7 trillion 401(k) market to invest in crypto assets through retirement plans, significantly boosting BTC demand expectations.

BTC/XRP Short-term Catalysts and Risk Outlook

(Source: TradingView)

• Key Driving Event:
  • XRP Spot ETF related news (especially BlackRock's movements).
  • US inflation report (CPI) and Federal Reserve policy signals (hawkish/dovish remarks).
  • Legislative Progress: Focus on the progress of the CLARITY Act in Congress.
  • BTC Spot ETF capital flow (continuous inflow supports supply and demand balance).
• Potential Scenario Analysis of BTC:

  • Bearish Scenario: Legislative obstacles, inflation exceeding expectations, and the Federal Reserve releasing hawkish signals, combined with ETF capital outflows. The combination of unfavorable information could push BTC towards $115,000, with the 50-day moving average support facing a test.

  • Bullish Scenario: The progress of the "Clear Act", cooling inflation, a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and continuous inflow of ETF funds. The favourable information combination is expected to drive BTC to break through the historical high of $122,055.

    

    (Source: TradingView)

• Key to XRP Breaking the Deadlock: In addition to the macro factors mentioned above, the progress of Ripple's U.S. banking license and the related cooperation dynamics with SWIFT are also important catalysts. The clear progress of the XRP Spot ETF remains the strongest potential driver to reverse the downturn.

Conclusion: The current crypto market shows a differentiated pattern. XRP is mired in the uncertainty of Spot ETF approval, with its price continuing to be under pressure. A breakthrough depends on the applications from giants like BlackRock being approved or a clear regulatory path. In contrast, Bitcoin has regained upward momentum, challenging previous highs again due to the favourable information from U.S. pension policy and the inflow of Spot ETF funds. Investors need to closely track the dynamics of the XRP/BTC Spot ETF, key U.S. economic data (CPI), and Congressional legislative processes, as these factors will determine whether the two leading coins can continue their rebound and even set new highs. The evolution of the crypto regulatory environment and institutional capital trends remain core variables driving short-term market volatility.