Bitcoin Price Prediction: big dump to $100,000 or strong breakthrough to new highs?

As of August 11, according to Gate market data, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $121,300, with a weekly volatility narrowing to 5.3%. Over the past month, BTC has fallen from a high of $123,000 and stabilized around $116,600 over the weekend, with the market caught in a range-bound phase, and on August 11, it broke through $120,000 again. Faced with a tug-of-war between key resistance and support, investors are eager to know: will Bitcoin crash to $100,000, or will it build momentum to break through its all-time high?

##Technical Analysis Bull-Bear Critical Point: $115,000 as the Lifeline

The current Bitcoin price is at a highly sensitive technical position, where both bulls and bears are fiercely battling in a narrow range:

• Support zone: The range of 115,000 - 115,135 USD constitutes a key defense line, including the 5/8 Murray level (115,625) and the 200-day moving average (114,870). If this area holds, it may trigger a rebound.
• Danger signal: If the price breaks below $115,000, it may initiate a bearish cycle, targeting $112,500, and possibly testing the bottom of the $110,500 range.
• Immediate Threat: Matrixport warns that if the $112,000 support is broken, the market focus will shift to the $106,000 range.

On the contrary, if the bulls can push the price to stabilize at the resistance zone of 117,350 - 118,000 USD (including the 6/8 Murray level), it may ultimately challenge the previous high of 123,255 USD, while a longer-term weekly analysis even points to a target of 133,665 USD.

##Bullish Scenario: Quad Engine Driving Impact to $140,000

The view of the bulls is distinct, with the technical pattern resonating with the fundamentals:

• Wave Theory Guidance: Ledn Chief Investment Officer John Glover pointed out based on Elliott Wave analysis that BTC is currently in the third driving wave, expected to hit 130,000 USD in the coming weeks, followed by a brief correction to 110,000 USD, after which it will initiate the ultimate rise to 135,000 - 140,000 USD.
• Institutional capital influx: Bitget predicts an increase of up to 10.92% in August, with a month-end target of 128,378 USD; CoinDCX is even more optimistic, believing that continued ETF inflows could drive the price up to 125,000 - 150,000 USD.
• Policy dividend release: The Trump administration allows 401(k) retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, opening a potential market of $9 trillion for Bitcoin. Following the announcement, Coinbase's stock price surged 3%, while Galaxy Digital soared 6%.
• Enterprise application breakthrough: American convenience store chain Sheetz launches a crypto payment promotion offering a 50% discount, while fast-food brand Steak ‘n Shake saves 50% on payment processing fees by accepting Bitcoin, highlighting the increased practical value of BTC.

##Bearish Risks: Threefold Sword Hanging Overhead

The bears warn that the market faces structural risks, with potential declines being astonishing:

• Economic Recession Transmission: BCA Research Chief Strategist Peter Berezin warns that a global economic recession could cause Bitcoin to plummet by 57% to $45,000. He believes that Bitcoin is essentially a derivative of tech stocks, rather than a true safe-haven asset.
• Deterioration signals: Matrixport has observed a shrinkage in trading volume and a consistently low funding rate, indicating signs of loosening in the market structure. Although short-term overselling may trigger a rebound, they remain skeptical about its sustainability.
• Public company selling pressure: The net asset value (NAV) of publicly listed companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin is shrinking, weakening their ability to increase BTC holdings through issuing new shares, and indirectly reducing market buying support.

##Core Variables: The Hidden Drivers That Determine Direction

The short-term direction of Bitcoin will depend on the evolution of three key factors:

1. Macro Economic Indicator: The market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in September has strengthened, but the signals are still unclear. Historical data shows that the Fed's rate cut cycle usually triggers multiple weeks of Bitcoin price increases.
2. On-chain scarcity model: S2F (scarcity model) continues to show the rising scarcity of BTC, the MVRV ratio reflects that market sentiment is in a "strong but not overheated" state, supporting the long-term bullish logic.
3. Regulatory divergence intensifies: The US adopts a loose policy (with pension funds entering the market) while the EU implements stricter new regulations on cryptocurrency.

##Ultimate Prediction: Breakthrough After Fluctuation or Plummet?

Combining various models and market signals, Bitcoin's performance in August may present the following scenarios:

| Situation | Trigger Condition | Target Price Level | Probability | | -------- | ----------------- | ------------------------------------------- | ------ | | Bullish Breakout | Stabilize at 118,000 USD | Short-term 123,000 USD → Monthly 128,000 USD → Q4 Launch 250,000 USD Journey | Moderate | | range-bound | holding steady at 115,000 - 118,000 USD | continuing consolidation until late August, waiting for clearer Federal Reserve policy | high | | Deep pullback | Break below 112,000 USD | Test down to 106,000 USD → Extreme case test of 100,000 USD psychological level | Lower |

##Conclusion: Patiently wait for a directional breakthrough

Bitcoin is currently in a narrow range-bound zone around $121,000. The short-term direction depends on three catalysts: US economic data (especially inflation and retail sales), the inflow rate of institutional ETFs, and the defensive strength of the $115,000 support.

From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin is still within a long-term upward channel. The mid-term (3-6 months) technical model still points to a target of $140,000. However, investors should be cautious: if global recession risks intensify or if regulations unexpectedly tighten, $100,000 is not an unreachable abyss.