Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin is about to hit a new high, with 200,000 in sight?

As of August 11, 15:00 UTC, according to Gate market data, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $121,300, rising 3.7% within 24 hours. The market experienced intense range-bound trading this week: after falling from the historical high (ATH) of $123,000 to the support zone of $116,600, it strongly broke through the psychological barrier of $120,000 today, with the weekly amplitude narrowing to 5.3%, entering a critical stage for directional decision-making.

##Technical Significance of Breaking Through $120,000: A Qualitative Change from Resistance Level to Launchpad

• Chip structure solidifies support: On-chain data shows that BTC has formed strong support at 117,000 USD, turning the 112,000 - 116,000 USD range into a "safe turnover zone." The current price has returned to the rising trajectory predicted by the "double anchor structure," confirming a medium-term bullish trend.
• Liquidity squeeze on shorts: In the past 24 hours, the market's rapid rise triggered over 30 million USD in short liquidations. If the price rises further by 10%, it could trigger the largest short squeeze in history, with potential liquidation amounts reaching up to 18 billion USD.
• Channel target points to $125,000: According to the MVRV extreme deviation pricing model, Bitcoin's current upper limit of the running channel is at $125,000, becoming the first target for a rebound. If the weekly close stabilizes at this level, the technical model predicts the second target will look up to $137,000.

##Three Core Energies Driving the ATH Challenge

Institutional funds continue to sweep up ###. The total amount of Bitcoin held by listed companies has reached 628,000 BTC (worth about 74 billion USD), with institutions like MicroStrategy continuing to increase their holdings. On August 9, the daily net inflow for ETFs was $935 million, and the allocation ratio of pension funds surged from 0.3% to 1.8%, with a potential incremental capital pool exceeding $9 trillion.

###macroeconomic policy catalyzes breakthrough Trump is about to sign an executive order on cryptocurrencies, allowing pension funds to invest in Bitcoin and other digital assets. Coupled with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, historical data shows that similar liquidity environments have an 82% success rate in boosting Bitcoin.

technical indicators resonance bullish

• Key moving average defense: 50-day moving average (113,324 USD) and Fibonacci support level (115,700 USD) form a multi-layer defense network.
• Derivatives market health: The funding rate for perpetual contracts is stable at 0.03% - 0.05%, with no signs of excessive leverage.
• Z-Value Momentum Indicator: Currently in the +1.5σ range, indicating strong upward momentum but not entering the danger zone.

##Callback Risk Warning: Unignorable Market Vulnerabilities

Despite the upward trend, short-term risks still need to be vigilant:

• Overbought signal appears: Daily RSI approaches 73, close to the overbought threshold. If the support at 112,000 is lost, it may trigger a chain sell-off, quickly dipping to 106,000 (institutional cost line).
• Miner selling pressure concerns: After the halving, miners' daily income decreased by 51.6%, and some mining machines' shutdown price has risen to 55,000 USD. If the coin price significantly corrects, it may trigger a wave of miner sell-offs.
• Macroeconomic data disturbance: If the CPI data to be released tomorrow and the Moody's report indicate a deterioration in the job market, it may instantly amplify risk-averse sentiment. Historical backtesting shows that such events have previously triggered fluctuations of around $10,000 in a single day.

##Operating Strategy: Dual-track System to Address Path Divergence

###Scenario 1: Breakthrough 123,000 ATH (Probability 60%)

• Pumping conditions: The closing price remains stable at 120,000 USD for 3 consecutive days and RSI < 75
• Target Levels: First target 125,000 USD (upper channel) → Second target 131,000 USD (1.618 Fibonacci extension) → Ultimate challenge 137,000 USD
• Stop-loss line: If it falls below $117,200, strict stop-loss is required.

###Scenario 2: Pullback test support (Probability 40%)

• Batch build position points:
  • 117,000 USD (50% Fibonacci)
  • 114,800 USD (on-chain chip accumulation zone)
  • 112,000 USD (Bull-Bear Line)
• Reversal signal confirmation: 1-hour chart MACD golden cross + volume increase of 20%

Long-term goal: Three major support points at $200,000 and institutional forecast divergence

427 days after the fourth halving, Bitcoin has entered the "sprinting period" in historical patterns. The technical and fundamental aspects form a triple support:

• Supply tightening intensifies: miner selling pressure drops from 35% to 12%, exchange reserves hit the lowest level since 2018.
• Institutional FOMO continues: The annual net inflow of spot ETFs has surpassed 30 billion USD, with daily demand equivalent to 12,000 BTC.
• Macroeconomic properties evolution: Bitcoin simultaneously exhibits safe-haven characteristics (with a correlation of 0.68 to gold) and risk asset features, gaining unique allocation value.

##Ultimate Judgment: The Inevitability of Progress Amidst Volatility The probability of breaking the $123,000 ATH in August exceeds 60%, but investors need to closely monitor three major indicators: institutional accumulation (warning line: monthly average 2,000 BTC/day), on-chain MVRV Z value (risk threshold > 3.5), and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction in September.

Historical data shows that the average return rate of Bitcoin in Q3 after halving reaches 68%. The current fluctuations are indeed a healthy pump continuation. As the $9 trillion capital pool of traditional finance begins to tilt towards Bitcoin, we are witnessing a structural transformation comparable to the rise of the gold market in the 1970s—this time, the appreciation script of digital gold has just turned to the second act.