Trading without unnecessary risk

📊 Why spot is more reliable than futures
In trading, it is important to remember: profitability is not only about timing but also about risk management. This is especially true when it comes to borrowed funds and trading with high leverage.
Why you should be careful with borrowed money 💡
Increased pressure on the deposit. During drawdowns, losses grow faster than when trading without borrowed funds.
Emotional pressure. When the outcome of a deal affects not only the deposit but also the obligations, decisions are made under pressure.
Commissions and costs. When using borrowed funds and leverage, trading expenses increase.
Futures and leverage - what does the math say 🎲
The mathematical expectation (ME) is the average result of a transaction over a large number of repetitions.
Let's assume:
The probability of a positive outcome of the transaction is 50%.
The average plus of the deal is +5%
The average deal loss is -5%
Entry and exit fee - 0.2%
Leverage = 5×

Without leverage: ME = 0.5 × 5% + 0.5 × (-5%) = 0% (excluding the commission)
With a shoulder of 5×:
Profit = +25%Loss = -25%
Commission considering leverage ≈ 1%ME = 0.5 × 25% + 0.5 × (-25%) - 1% = -1%
Even with equal chances, the result goes negative due to fees and leverage.
Advantages of Spot 💎
There is no risk of liquidation of the position.
Less influence of fees.
Real ownership of the asset.
The ability to work at a more relaxed pace.
Result:
Futures and margin trading can be useful tools for experienced traders, but statistics show that given equal odds, the costs often outweigh the profits. For most participants, spot remains a more balanced and reliable choice.
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