In-Depth Analysis: Whale Movements in the Crypto Market

In the ever-changing crypto market, the flow of large funds has always been an important indicator of market trends. Through an in-depth analysis of the latest leaderboard data from a decentralized derivatives exchange, we gain insight into the true movements of "smart money." As of July 30, the whales on this exchange's leaderboard have opened positions worth 4.6 billion USD, with long positions dominating at 3 billion USD. However, beneath this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a stark divergence in strategies: traders are bullish on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH while simultaneously shorting many low market cap tokens. What does this significant differentiation indicate for the market direction?

Overall Trend: Bulls Dominate, but Enthusiasm Has Diminished

From a macro data perspective, the bullish forces currently have the upper hand. As of July 30, the total positions of top traders amount to approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions about $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of approximately 66%.

However, beneath the optimistic data lies a cautious signal. Firstly, the bullish trend has shown signs of decline, with the long-short ratio falling from the high point of 76% on July 27. Secondly, in terms of profit efficiency, the performance of shorts is more outstanding: among the tokens that whales are bearish on, as much as 79% of the positions are in profit; while among the tokens they are bullish on, this ratio is only 53.5%. This indicates that, although whales generally tend to be bullish, their short-term bearish decisions are easier to profit from.

In addition, a certain data platform shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of the exchange, short positions have also become the main force, which diverges from the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses generally still indicate a bullish outlook.

Whale Big Data: Bullish on mainstream coins, bearish on small tokens.

The core strategic divergence among the whales is reflected in their token selection, presenting a clear picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting small coins."

In terms of mainstream assets, whales show a strong bullish stance. Taking the positions of BTC and ETH, which have the highest positions, their long-to-short ratios far exceed 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total long position amounts to 1.2 billion USD, while the short position is only 479 million USD. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is as high as 48.3%, significantly higher than the 14% for longs, suggesting that many short positions may not be purely bearish but rather used as hedging orders for risk management. Additionally, tokens like TON (19.83 million USD position) and AAVE (25.18 million USD position) also have high long-to-short ratios, making them some of the few small-cap tokens favored by whales.

However, the attitude of whales towards other small-cap tokens is completely opposite. A series of tokens including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB have long-short ratios below 50%, indicating that shorts are dominant. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, JUP, the long-short ratio is even less than 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in a profitable state, further confirming the effectiveness of the whales' short-selling decisions.

Overall, although the bullish trend of all tokens remains mainstream, there has been a downward trend since July 27, with the long-short ratio dropping from over 76% the previous day to 66% on July 28. Among the tokens that Whales are bullish on, 53.5% of the tokens are overall in a profitable state. Among the 29 tokens that are generally bearish, 79% are overall in a profitable state.

Specifically regarding BTC data, 71.7% of traders in the ranking are long, with a total of $1.2 billion in long positions. The average entry price is approximately $114,000, and the average liquidation distance is 14%, with an overall profit of $27.82 million. In terms of short data, the positions are significantly less, around $479 million, with an average entry price of $115,000, but the average liquidation distance still stands at 48.3%, indicating that the Whale's short positions seem to be more inclined towards hedging orders.

In terms of position size, the average long position of BTC's whales is 10 million USD, while the average short position is about 7.98 million USD.

Top Traders: Long-term Bullish, Short-term Wait-and-see or Short Selling

In addition to the overall data, the attitudes of top traders also seem to provide some insight into the market sentiment.

The trader with the highest profit currently has a total profit of about 54.86 million USD. This trader's profit curve has been trending upward since December 2024, making them a relatively steady and durable trader.

His positions are currently relatively balanced in terms of total amount, with both long and short positions around 63 million dollars. In terms of specific token choices, most hold short positions while a few hold long positions. Among them, the position with the highest floating profit is FARTCOIN, which was shorted at 1.44 dollars, and the current unrealized profit and loss has reached 1.12 million dollars. Among the 16 orders that are in profit, only 2 are long positions with floating profit. AAVE has a floating profit of 976,000 dollars. From his positions, it basically aligns with big data, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but bearish on small market cap tokens in the short term.

The second-ranked trader currently has a profit of approximately $35 million. This trader clearly maintains a long-term bullish outlook on the market, holding only long positions with an overall leverage of just 3.6 times. In terms of cycles, this trader is evidently a long-term trader, with an opening price for ETH long positions at only $2812, BTC long positions at $110,000, and SOL at $142, almost all held for the long term. However, his long-term long positions have not all realized profits, with an unrealized loss of $235,000 for FARTCOIN, $45,000 for BIGTIME, and $18,000 for STRK. The remaining orders are all in profit, with just the ETH long position bringing him an unrealized gain of $7.21 million.

The floating profit of the third largest trader has reached 40 million USD (in fact, he should be the second trader in terms of floating profit). Among this trader's positions, 78% are short positions. This trader seems to be a short-term trader, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his positions are not large, suggesting a wait-and-see approach towards the market.

From the positions of these traders, long-term traders remain generally optimistic about the future, while short-term traders tend to be more bearish or are reducing positions to wait and see.

In summary, Whale data depicts a market picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting small-cap coins." Although the overall positions lean towards bullish, this bullish sentiment is mainly concentrated on a few core assets like BTC and ETH, and its advantage has shown a downward trend. Meanwhile, the short positions of whales on small-cap tokens are not only numerous but also have a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearish view on high-risk assets and effective harvesting. From the perspective of top traders' personal strategies, long-term investors remain optimistically patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious in shorting or holding their positions. For ordinary investors, understanding the "dual" strategy of whales may be more important than simply following the bullish or bearish direction.

Risk Warning: The content of this article is based on public data analysis and is for informational reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice or opinions. The crypto market is highly risky, with significant price volatility. Investment should be approached with caution; please ensure independent thinking and bear all risks yourself.