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99% of BTC/Cryptocurrency traders are unaware of this
Many people believe that the price of Bitcoin follows a predictable four-year cycle driven by its Halving event, and the price is expected to steadily pump as planned. However, unlike predictable seasonal changes, the market behavior of BTC is more volatile, often skyrocketing in a parabolic pump when demand suddenly shifts.
👇 2-14) While supply is often seen as the main driver, BTC's PA is fundamentally demand-driven. Contrary to the perception of irrational or ignorant trading, BTC often reflects deeper market fundamentals. Only a small number of investors understand these complexities, but "Whales" – major market players with significant influence – are intimately familiar with these factors and develop strategies around them.
👇 3-14) A single indicator cannot define the fundamentals; it combines various data points to determine whether the prices of BTC and other Tokens are pumping or falling. Since March and April, certain data points have changed (see our May webinars), prompting savvy investors to adjust their portfolios accordingly. While retail investors and memecoin enthusiasts have been pushing for higher prices, these shifting fundamentals are signaling to institutional investors that it's time to reposition. This demand shift is now affecting the PA of BTC.
👇 4-14) Monitoring and analyzing these data points requires much more effort than simply following an inspiring tweet, but it distinguishes professionals from amateur enthusiasts. When market activity slows due to weakened demand, income and profits decline. When Ethereum's income sharply declined in April and May, we warned that Ether was overvalued, and since then the price has experienced a significant pullback.
99% failed to monitor the basic protocol income to assess the financial health.
👇 5-14) As the data in August showed, Solana may be on the verge of a similar 'income cliff', despite being four months behind Ethereum. The on-chain volume of Solana on Decentralization exchange (DEX) has dropped sharply, which may prompt liquidity providers to withdraw SOL from the liquidity pool, where the yield is also decreasing. These withdrawn SOL Tokens may be sold, thereby dropping Solana's dominant position.
👇 6-14)Among the 112 leading Tokens we tracked, 79% fell in 2024. While BTCpump rose by 38%, ETH Token only rose by 8%. Only 10% of these Tokens outperformed BTC this year. Despite predictions for a Twitter encryption Rebound in recent months, the much-anticipated 'AltCoin season' remains elusive due to the lack of a solid fundamental narrative.
99% of people overlook the fundamental driving factors behind the current market narrative.
👇 7-14) The AltCoin frenzy in 2020/2021 was triggered by the issuance of the second and third COVID-19 relief checks on December 27, 2020, and March 11, 2021. The foundation for this surge was already laid as early as October 2020 when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of the risks of insufficient fiscal stimulus and emphasized the need for additional government intervention. With the Federal Reserve already providing maximum liquidity, intensified fiscal stimulus measures have fueled the surge in retail trading activity. This enthusiasm has yet to be replicated in the current market cycle.
👇 8-14) Many people predict that a new round of Liquidity cycle is coming, and the rate cut is expected to boost all asset prices as traditional practice. However, the key issue is timing. Savvy investors will not consider the issue from a macro perspective, but follow the details, which indicate that the rate cut may initially bring huge pain to the market.