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US October CPI meets expectations! BTC soars to 93,000, will the Fed cut interest rates again?
CPI data release triggers market follow
The consumer price index (CPI) data for October in the United States was released on the evening of the 13th, showing a 2.6% rise compared to the same period last year, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, both in line with market expectations. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a monthly increase of 0.3%, also in line with estimates. These data show that although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, they still remain above the Federal Reserve's target.
Source: Investing US October CPI data meets expectations
The release of CPI data has raised concerns among investors about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Earlier, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, warned that if inflation unexpectedly rises in the next month, the Fed may have to reconsider its rate-cutting plans. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that market expectations for another 0.25 percentage point rate cut in December have risen from 58% the previous day to 82.8%.
Source: CME FedWatch market predicts an 82.8% chance of a one-point rate cut in December.
Bitcoin price Fluctuation, investors' enthusiasm remains unabated
Before the inflation data was released, the price of BTC had dropped from $89,000 yesterday to $86,200. However, after the data was released, BTC quickly rebounded, reaching as high as $93,322 (as of the time of writing, the BTC price is $89,689). Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that if the BTC price falls to $80,000, it would be an ideal entry point and predicted a price target of $100,000.
Image source: TradingView BTC reaches a new high of $93,322
Meanwhile, long-term holders remain confident in BTC. According to Glassnode data, despite the recent price increase, LTH-NUPL, their net unrealized profit/loss, has not shown extreme greed. It is still in the 'greed' zone, which is not yet close to the historical peak of 'extreme greed', indicating that BTC still has room to rise.
Image source: The long-term holder ALI still has confidence in BTC
Inflation and market outlook, focus on Federal Reserve policy
As the CPI data met expectations, it temporarily eased market concerns about inflation, but the Federal Reserve's next move remains uncertain. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, said:
"The easing of inflation provides the Federal Reserve with some room to cut interest rates next month, but they are likely to pause in January. Stronger-than-expected economic growth may keep US bond yields at high levels."
In addition, the trend of rental prices is also an important factor affecting the CPI. Morgan Stanley economist Diego Anzoategui expects the "landlord equivalent rent" (OER) to rise slightly in October, but the long-term trend will gradually decline. This is an important indicator for investors and legislators who follow inflation trends.
Market response and future expectations
US stocks rose and fell after the CPI data was released.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 47.21 points, or 0.11%, to close at 43,958.19 points.
Nasdaq Index: fell 50.68 points, or 0.26%, to close at 19,230.72 points.
S&P 500 Index: pump 1.39 points, or 0.0%, closed at 5,985.38 points.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: fell 102.34 points, or 2.00%, to close at 5,006.29.
NYSE FANG + Index: up 6.45 points or 0.051%, closing at 12,527.68 points.
Investors are digesting the latest economic data and the possible policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
The BTC and other Cryptocurrency markets experienced fluctuations due to the release of inflation data, but the overall trend is still favored by investors. With the increasing demand for hedge assets in the market, the performance of Cryptocurrency may continue to be followed in the coming weeks. However, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be a key variable affecting the market's direction, and investors need to closely follow the upcoming economic data and policy statements.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.
The October CPI in the United States meets expectations! BTC soars to 93,000, will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again? This article was first published in 'encryption city'.