For months, cryptocurrency traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts, anticipating the arrival of the alt season, when altcoins will soar. However, despite bullish predictions and brief upticks, the alt season has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: why is the alt season late? Will there be an alt season at all?

01, Bitcoin’s iron-fisted control: dominance and institutional adoption

Bitcoin’s dominance - the proportion of its market capitalization in the cryptocurrency market - has been hovering around 60% between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen since the bull run of 2017. This dominance reflects the market’s preference for Bitcoin, due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.

• Institutional Attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 have attracted billions of dollars of funds flowing into BTC, making it a “safe-haven asset” in the crypto market. Major institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin and overlook altcoins.
• Halving Effect: The Bitcoin halving event in 2024 reinforced its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that could have otherwise flowed into riskier altcoins.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, “Altcoins typically only start to rise after Bitcoin completes a parabolic rise”. As BTC continues to set new highs, there is no reason for investors to turn to altcoins.

02, Macro Headwinds: The Fed’s Tight Control on Liquidity

The Fed’s monetary policy has always been a hidden killer for the alt season. Unlike the bull run of 2020-2021 (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), 2024-2025 is marked by quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates.

• Liquidity Tightening: Quantitative tightening has drained the liquidity of the financial markets and reduced risk appetite. Altcoins, as speculative assets, rely on excess capital. Without liquidity, they can only stagnate.
• Rate cut delay: Despite market rumors that the Fed may shift to a loose policy, rate cuts are still a long way off. Until borrowing costs decrease, institutions and retail investors are unwilling to take risks on altcoins.

This macroeconomic backdrop stands in stark contrast to the rampant liquidity of the previous altcoin season, when Meme and DeFi tokens soared significantly.

03, too many altcoins in circulation: too many coins, insufficient demand

The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity is not keeping up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains fragmented, leading to potential returns being diluted.

• Capital dispersion: More tokens vying for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.
• Caution in venture capital: Venture capital for crypto projects dropped from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, with severe shortage of funding for altcoins.

This oversupply creates a ‘crowded market’ where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity stand out - a far cry from the ICO frenzy of 2017 or the NFT craze of 2021.

04, retail investors absent

The altcoin season is usually driven by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). However, the retail participation in 2025 is significantly weaker compared to past cycles.

• Social sentiment is low: Indicators tracking social media activity related to cryptocurrencies show a lack of the frenzy seen during the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu coin craze.
• Caution: Retail investors who were battered by the 2022 market crash are now more inclined towards Bitcoin than altcoins. As one trader put it: “Why buy memes when BTC is up 150% this year?” ”

Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to sustain continuous growth.

05, Regulatory uncertainty: a double-edged sword

Regulatory clarity is crucial for altcoins, especially those tokens classified as securities. Despite the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance fueling optimism, progress remains slow.

• ETF delays: Altcoin ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are still stuck in regulatory limbo. Analysts believe they have a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline is unclear.
• DeFi and Stablecoin Review: Regulatory ambiguity on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins has stifled innovation, causing institutional funds to hesitate.

Uncertainty will continue to exist until regulatory approval of altcoin ETFs or clear rules are established.

06, Historical Mode: Patience is a virtue

The cryptocurrency market is cyclical, and the altcoin season typically occurs in the last year of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. Although 2025 is considered to be the next alt season, delays are not unprecedented.

• 2017 vs. 2021: Both alt seasons saw historic highs in Bitcoin followed by consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
• ETH/BTC ratio: Ethereum’s poor performance against Bitcoin indicates that the alt season has not yet begun. Historically, Ethereum has often led the rise of altcoins, but its ratio to BTC remains close to multi-year lows.

07, Summary

The alt season has not disappeared, it is just waiting for the right conditions. The dominance of Bitcoin, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory barriers have temporarily pressed the pause button on the frenzy of altcoins. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment.

Currently, patience and selective investment in projects with strong fundamentals—such as artificial intelligence, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions—is key. As the saying in the crypto community goes, “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

Stay tuned, proceed with caution, and keep a close eye on the dominance of Bitcoin. The clock is ticking for alt season—it’s just a matter of time, not if it will happen.

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