Latest market trends and on-chain dynamics

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

Price Review: On June 22, 2025, Bitcoin reached a peak of $103,524, but quickly fell in the afternoon, dipping below the $100,000 mark at one point, with a minimum of $99,237, closing down 4.13% for the day. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and BNB also fell in tandem, leading to a total market capitalization of digital assets shrinking by over 2%.

On-chain capital flow: Observing the data from Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin on-chain transactions and the transfer volume increased by nearly 15% on June 22, with a rise in the number of large transfers (greater than 1,000 BTC), indicating that some large holders have chosen to gradually exit at high levels; at the same time, the exchange balances slightly rebounded by 300 BTC, suggesting that selling pressure has concentrated.

Futures-spot spread and margin trading: The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts jumped from 0.02% to 0.045% on the same day, while the overnight rate rose from 0.015% to 0.035%, indicating that short sellers are willing to pay a higher cost to short, with market sentiment leaning towards pessimism.

In-depth driver analysis

1. Geopolitical sudden impact

• The U.S. targets Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising market concerns that the situation in the Middle East may further escalate;
• Rumors of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil futures prices above $85 per barrel, intensifying safe-haven demand.

2. Market Liquidity and Leverage Extractions

• Multiple leveraged asset management products triggered stop-losses at key price points, leading to concentrated liquidations;
• Mainstream exchange data shows that the total liquidation amount in 24 hours exceeds 600 million USD, with the short liquidation rate higher than that of longs, driving the price to fall rapidly.

3. The impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations

• In June, Federal Reserve officials frequently adopted a hawkish stance, indicating the possibility of further rate hikes in July, putting pressure on risk assets in emerging markets.
• The US dollar index rose by 0.6% during the day, reducing the attractiveness of Bitcoin, priced in US dollars, for holders.

Comprehensive analysis of technical and capital aspects

1. Key Moving Averages and Trading Volume

• On the daily chart, the 7-day moving average has turned down and has fallen below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages;
• The fall below the $100,000 mark was accompanied by a 40% increase in trading volume on that day, indicating a clear short-term bearish signal.

2. Futures Funding Rate and Position Structure

• The perpetual contract funding rate remains high, reflecting a strong willingness of bears to add positions.
• OKEx and Binance data show that the long-short ratio has reached 1.8:1, indicating a significant advantage for the bears.

3. Important On-Chain Indicators

• The annualized yield of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) has reached a year-to-date low, indicating that the holding cost range is between 100,000 and 110,000 USD.
• The number of active addresses rebounded and then continued to fall, indicating a decrease in short-term market participation.

Investor operation strategy

1. Layered Layout and Position Control

• Divide the funds available for digital assets into three parts, building positions in batches at $98,000, $95,000, and $92,000.
• Each layer of position should not exceed 30% of the total funds to avoid the risk of liquidation due to heavy single-position investments.

2. Dynamic Take-Profit and Stop-Loss Model

• Set the stop-loss at 3%~5% below each entry price.
• Take profit by reducing positions in batches at 105,000, 110,000, and 120,000 USD, and adjust flexibly according to market trends.

3. Long-term allocation and multi-asset hedging

• Investors who are optimistic about the long-term value of blockchain can allocate their remaining assets to Ethereum or high-quality Layer 1 public chains.
• At the same time, consider allocating a small amount of hedging assets, such as gold ETFs or US dollar bonds, to balance the risk.

Market Outlook and Risk Warning

1. Macroeconomic event-driven secondary fluctuations

• If the situation in the Middle East escalates again, the risk-averse atmosphere will be difficult to ease in the short term;
• Conversely, once diplomatic easing signals appear, Bitcoin may welcome a technical rebound.

2. Technical Rebound and Confirmation Signal

• Pay attention to the daily RSI rebound from the oversold area and break through 30;
• Price returning above $105,000 and stabilizing may be an initial signal of a reversal.

3. Investor Mindset and Information Blind Spots

• Newbies should not blindly chase highs or sell on falls; they need to consider their own risk tolerance and financial planning.
• Beware of market rumors and overinterpreting single news; maintain rationality and patience.