Immutable (IMX) price prediction: Facing a critical support test at $0.35, 8.15 million unlocked intensifies bearish risks.

The price of Immutable (IMX) Token has recently shown a significant pullback trend after experiencing a strong rebound of nearly 100% from the end of June to mid-July. Technical Analysis indicates that it has formed a bearish descending triangle pattern, and the price has fallen below the 20-day EMA. Short-term momentum is weakening. Adding to the supply pressure of 8.15 million IMX (approximately 12.39 million USD) that will be unlocked on August 8, the Token price is approaching the key support level of 0.35 USD. If this support is lost, it could trigger a deep pullback; however, if it forms a triple bottom rebound and breaks through the descending trend line, it may initiate a new upward trend.

1. Technical Analysis Deterioration: Descending Triangle Formation, MA Support is at Risk The IMX price has continued to pull back since it reached a high of $0.67 on July 19, currently trading around $0.51, which is a pullback of about 25% from the peak. Key technical signals include: * Falling below the short-term MA: The price has effectively fallen below the 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), indicating a short-term trend reversal to bearish.

• Key Moving Averages Under Pressure: The 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) is providing dynamic support, but the price is approaching this defense line, increasing the risk of a breakout.
• Descending Triangle Threat: Months of price movement have formed a classic descending triangle pattern—made up of a line connecting gradually lower highs (descending trend line) and a horizontal support level (0.35 USD). This pattern typically signals a continuation of the decline, and the 0.35 USD support has been tested twice, with the probability of breaking it significantly increasing upon a third touch.

(Source: TradingView)

2. Unlock Countdown: 8.15 million IMX will be released soon, short-term selling pressure intensifies The technical risk is amplified due to the upcoming token unlock event. According to the plan: * **Unlock Time: ** August 8 (less than a week from now). * Unlocking Amount: 8.15 million IMX Tokens, accounting for 1.30% of the current circulation. * Unlocking Value: Calculated at the current price, approximately $12.39 million. Although the unlocking ratio has not reached an abnormal level, the additional market supply will further suppress buying momentum against the backdrop of an already weak technical structure, increasing the risk of breaking the support level at 0.35 dollars.

3. Bull-Bear Threshold: $0.35 support level determines medium-term direction The current price trend faces two potential evolution paths:

• Bearish Scenario (Support Break): If the IMX price effectively falls below the $0.35 support after testing it for the third time, it will confirm the bearish signal of the descending triangle pattern, potentially triggering a deeper fall, with lower targets looking towards the previous low of $0.34 or even lower.
• Bullish Scenario (Triple Bottom Reversal): If the price gains strong support again at $0.35 and rebounds, it will form a triple bottom structure, releasing a strong bottom reversal signal. If it can further break through the upper trend line of the descending triangle (currently around $0.55-$0.57), the bearish expectation of the technical pattern will be overturned, potentially attracting new buying interest, pushing the price to challenge the previous high of $0.67 and initiating a new round of pump.

Conclusion: The IMX Token is at a critical intersection of technology and token economics. The token unlock event on August 8th is like the "last straw" on the camel's back, potentially forcing the price to make a final directional choice regarding the $0.35 support level. Investors need to closely monitor three core signals: 1) The defense strength of the $0.35 support area; 2) The actual selling pressure digestion in the market post-unlock; 3) The price's attempts to break through the 50-day SMA and the descending trendline. Regardless of the direction of the breakout, significant volatility expansion could occur, and risk management plans should be in place. For the project team, this unlock also serves as a stress test for market confidence and the robustness of the token economic model.