Can TRON reach a new historical peak by the end of 2025?

TRON (TRX) is "defying gravity" – a metaphorical phrase as Justin Sun has just completed a flight into space. While most of the coins in the top 20 are drowning in red on the weekly chart, TRX stands out as a rare highlight with a 3.3% increase over the past seven days and is currently trading above $0.33.

However, the bigger question at this moment is: after naturally reaching the previous all-time high (ATH) in December 2024, can the price of TRON take off once again – this time thanks to the combination of whale activity, momentum from retail investors, and an optimism that spreads like wildfire?

**Whales "catch the wave" as the TRX/BTC pair replays the breakout pattern

The largest TRON wallets – those holding at least 0.1% of the total supply – have entered a strong accumulation phase. On July 29, the inflow into these whale wallets reached 1.3 billion TRX, equivalent to a 588% increase compared to the previous week.

The price of TRON and the inflow of whales | Source: IntoTheBlockTo illustrate, this number is even higher than the spike of 10.3 billion TRX recorded just before the ATH in December 2024. However, unlike the previous occasion when the breakout occurred in a favorable macroeconomic context, this time the upward trend coincides with the wave of interest surrounding Justin Sun's space flight with Blue Origin.

Note that this index reflects the amount of TRX transferred into the wallets of whales, which is different from the inflow of funds into exchanges – which is often a selling signal – this is an accumulation signal.

The market seems to be "buying the story": TRON/BTC is currently compressing in a rising triangle pattern – almost identical to the pattern that appeared before last year's breakout.

TRON/BTC and the repeating pattern | Source: TradingViewWith TRX/BTC currently nearing the level of 0.00000293 BTC, a breakout could trigger a ripple effect into the TRX/USDT market.

The TRX/BTC chart reflects the performance of TRON against Bitcoin. When the trend is upward, it means that TRX is strengthening even compared to the leading cryptocurrency.

Momentum is not strong yet, but traders still bet on Long positions

Despite the optimism from whales, the overall momentum remains unclear. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is currently at 52 and is creating lower highs – completely opposite to the series of consecutive highs above 80 that fueled TRON's price increase in 2024. Thus, even though large wallets are "ready to take off," the overall money flow in the market has not truly synchronized.

The money flow index needs to signal a buy | Source: TradingViewThis could be the key reason that the price of TRX needs more time to reach a new ATH, despite the active activities from whales.

The (MFI) money flow index indicates whether money is flowing into or out of TRX, by combining price and trading volume to determine buying or selling pressure.

The Long-Short ratio favors the bulls | Source: CoinglassHowever, the Long/Short ratio of TRON shows that retail traders are betting on an upward trend. As of August 5, the Long/Short ratio has increased to 1.36, with nearly 58% of the total open contracts (OI) leaning towards Long positions. This reflects a growing speculative demand. If momentum begins to accelerate, it could amplify any bullish breakout. A market leaning towards Long positions could also act as a catalyst for the MFI index to rebound.

This ratio compares the number of traders betting that the price will increase (Long) with the number of people betting that the price will decrease (Short), thereby helping to assess the overall market sentiment.

In summary, traders are preparing early and are just waiting for the catalyst.

TRON needs one final push to break through the important threshold

The price action of TRON on the weekly chart shows readiness signals but has not yet truly exploded. After surpassing the threshold of $0.31, TRX is currently consolidating around $0.33 – close to the old resistance area that has turned into support at $0.32.

The next important breakout level is $0.34. If the bulls can close the weekly candle above this level, the path towards $0.40 will become clearer, with the full extension target at $0.48 – marking a new ATH for TRON.

TRON Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewHowever, the bullish hypothesis will be invalidated if TRON breaks through the important support levels at $0.3. If the weekly candle closes below $0.29, the overall market structure may shift to slightly negative in the short to medium term.

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