Aptos (APT) Price Prediction: $51 million Token unlock leads to increased sell pressure, critical support level at risk!

Aptos (APT) is facing a severe test today! A total of 11.31 million APT (approximately 51 million USD) tokens are unlocked, leading to a surge in Circulating Supply. Coupled with the overall market's fall and a strong sentiment for profit-taking, APT is experiencing significant dumping pressure, with prices under downward pressure. Currently, the APT price is struggling near the key support level of the 20-day moving average, with the Long-Short Ratio indicating a dominance of short positions. If it fails to hold this level, it may trigger a deeper decline. Cryptocurrency investors need to closely follow APT's price movement and the contest for key support levels.

Token unlocking triggers a surge in APT Circulating Supply, significantly increasing market sell pressure The Aptos blockchain project has unlocked up to 11.31 million APT Tokens today, worth approximately 51 million USD. This large-scale token unlocking event significantly increases the Circulating Supply of APT in the secondary market. Against the backdrop of a general correction in the current cryptocurrency market, coupled with the strong profit-taking willingness of many coin traders, APT is facing enormous dumping pressure. This sudden increase on the supply side is highly likely to exacerbate APT's recent price fall trend.

(APT price/volume | Source: TradingView)

APT price continues to weaken, with rising trading volume highlighting increased dumping willingness Currently, the trading price of APT is $4.58, having fallen by 2% in the last 24 hours. It is noteworthy that during the same period, its 24-hour trading volume has increased by 10%, which clearly indicates that the turnover rate of APT tokens in the market is rising. When the price of a cryptocurrency falls while trading volume rises, it is often a classic signal of increased selling pressure. This volume-price divergence strongly suggests that more investors are choosing to sell and exit rather than buy and hold. Therefore, this trend indicates that the APT market is experiencing stronger downward momentum, and the sellers' control is continuing to strengthen.

The Long-Short Ratio fell to 0.69, with short positions dominating the APT futures market sentiment

(APT Futures Open Interest | Source: Coinglass) Further supporting this bearish view is the continuous fall in the Long-Short Ratio of APT. According to the hourly chart data, as of the time of writing, this ratio is only 0.69. The Long-Short Ratio measures the proportion of long positions to short positions in the futures market of a given asset. A ratio greater than 1 indicates that bullish bets dominate, meaning that most traders expect the asset price to rise. Conversely, a Long-Short Ratio below 1 indicates that bearish sentiment is predominant, with the number of traders betting on price declines exceeding those betting on price increases. The current Long-Short Ratio of APT, well below 1, clearly shows that the market demand for short positions in APT is increasing, with traders actively positioning themselves to profit from the growing downward pressure.

The 20-day moving average is a crucial lifeline, can APT maintain support? Observing the daily chart, the current price of APT is hovering around its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This places the altcoin at a significant risk node—its next direction will set the tone for its short-term price movement. The 20-day EMA reflects the average price level of the asset over the past 20 trading days by giving more weight to recent prices. When the asset price effectively stands above the 20-day moving average, it usually indicates enhanced upward momentum and the potential opening of an upward trend, showing that buyer strength is prevailing. Conversely, if the price effectively falls below the 20-day moving average, it signifies a depletion of upward momentum, and market sentiment may turn bearish, with sellers beginning to dominate the market.

If APT price loses the 20-day EMA, it may trigger a deeper correction If the APT price ultimately decisively falls below the 20-day EMA key support level, it will confirm that short positions have completely taken control of the market initiative. Such a breakout movement is highly likely to trigger a more intense panic selling wave, pushing the APT price further down, below the $4.52 level.

APT Long Position Counterattack Opportunity: Stabilizing Above the 20-Day EMA May Lead to a Rebound On the contrary, if the 20-day EMA can effectively serve as a solid support platform, it may provide a foundation for APT price rebound. If buyers can decisively enter and absorb the selling pressure at this key level, it is expected to drive APT price up and attempt to break through the 5.01 USD resistance level.

Conclusion: The recent massive APT Token unlocking event has significantly impacted the market's supply and demand relationship, coupled with the overall weak market sentiment, which has sharply increased the short-term downside risk for APT. Investors should closely monitor the competition for the 20-day EMA critical support level and the changes in the market's long-short force comparison (Long-Short Ratio). A significant break below the support could trigger a deeper decline, while successful defense may create opportunities for a rebound from oversold conditions. Market panic and profit-taking selling pressure remain the core factors driving APT's price movement.