Macro Report on the Crypto Market for Q3 2025: A Selective Bull Run Led by Institutions is Brewing

1. The macro environment is warming up, driven by policy and regulation.

Starting in the third quarter of 2025, the macro environment of the crypto market is undergoing positive changes. The Federal Reserve has ended its rate hike cycle, fiscal policy is back on a stimulus track, and global crypto regulation is accelerating the establishment of an "accommodative framework." These factors are driving the crypto market into a phase of structural reevaluation.

In terms of monetary policy, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates within 2025. The pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed may also accelerate the arrival of easing policies. This opens up upward space for the valuation of risk assets, especially digital assets.

In terms of fiscal policy, expansionary policies represented by the "Great American Rescue Plan" are releasing significant capital effects. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the demand for digital assets.

The shift in regulatory attitude deserves more attention. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change, and the approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the entry of yield-bearing digital assets into the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing a unified approval standard for token ETFs, which signifies a fundamental shift in regulatory logic from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering."

The regulatory race in the Asia-Pacific region is also heating up. Financial hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore are competing for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. This means that in the future, stablecoins will become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in traditional financial markets is also showing signs of recovery. The rebound of tech stocks and emerging assets, along with the warming of the IPO market, indicates that risk capital is flowing back and beginning to revalue blockchain and encryption financial assets.

Under the dual drivers of policy and market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a value reassessment process driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a more gentle yet powerful way.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions and Enterprises Lead the New Bull Run

The most noteworthy change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. Users focused on speculation are gradually becoming marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aimed at allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulating chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "locking up" process. The cumulative purchase scale of Bitcoin by listed companies has surpassed the net buying volume of ETFs during the same period. Enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute" rather than a short-term allocation tool.

Financial infrastructure is also clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the ETH staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of the Solana ETF further expands the imagination.

Moreover, companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market. On-chain investments from enterprises like Bitmine and DeFi Development represent a capital injection characterized by "industry mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout," with the intention of securing the core asset rights of new financial infrastructure.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional financial institutions are also actively positioning themselves. The trading activity of crypto futures on CME has reached a new high, indicating that traditional trading institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategy models.

From the perspective of structural turnover, the significant decrease in the activity of retail investors and short-term players reinforces the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows a continuous decline in the proportion of short-term holders and a decrease in the activity of early large holders, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly materializing. From JPMorgan to platforms like Robinhood, there is an expansion of trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities for encryption assets. This truly realizes the "usability in the fiat currency system" for encryption assets and provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep unfolding of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the logic of value discovery. A institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: Selective Bull Run Replaces General Uptrend

The "alt season" of 2025 is entering a new phase: the broad rally is no longer present, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From the structural signals, the mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time, with large addresses significantly accumulating ETH in the short term, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

The ETF application has become the anchor point for a new round of thematic structure. Especially the spot ETF for Solana has been regarded as the next "market consensus event". Investors have begun to layout around staked assets, and the price performance of governance tokens such as JTO and MNDE has also started to show independent trends.

The logic in the DeFi space has also undergone fundamental changes. Users have shifted from "point airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi," where protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms have become core indicators for assessing asset value. This shift has led to the emergence of projects like Renzo, Size Credit, and Yield Nest.

The choice of capital has also become more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have also become key factors in determining the flow of funds, with middleware projects such as Enso, Wormhole, and T1 Protocol emerging as new hubs for capital concentration.

The speculative part of the market is also undergoing a shift. While meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" is on the rise, but it carries high risks and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season is "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." From the changes in ETF structures, the re-staking yield model, the simplification of cross-chain UX, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Balancing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The market layout for the third quarter of 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local bursts." From the long-term allocation of Bitcoin, to the thematic trading of Solana ETFs, and then to the rotation strategies of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA vaults, a hierarchical and adaptable asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows have not reversed, corporate treasuries continue to increase their holdings, and the Federal Reserve's policy signals a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital absorption effect. Even if it has not yet reached new highs, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it is still the most stable underlying asset in the current cycle.

Solana is the most thematic explosive target in Q3. Leading institutions have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, with the approval window expected to end around September. As the staking mechanism is likely to be incorporated into the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for preemptive layout. This narrative will drive SOL spot and its staking ecosystem governance tokens, such as JTO, MNDE, etc.

DeFi portfolios are worth reconstructing. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capability, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects can refer to SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., using an equal weight configuration method. Such protocols often have characteristics of "slow capital return and delayed explosion" and should be approached with a medium-line allocation mindset.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, and it is recommended to limit it to within 5% of the total net asset value. Given that Meme contracts are often manipulated by high-frequency funds, it is advisable to set clear stop-loss mechanisms, profit-taking rules, and position limits. These types of assets can serve as sentiment replenishment tools but should not be misjudged as the core of the trend.

Another key point in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layouts. The current market is in a transition period from "information vacuum" to "event-intensive release." Trump's reaffirmation of support for encryption mining and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman has triggered expectations of accelerated policy games. With the Solana ETF review node approaching, the market is expected to experience a "policy + capital resonance" trend from mid-August to early September.

In addition, attention should be paid to the volume momentum of structural substitution themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and integration with RWA. Projects like $H(Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA(AI+DePIN integration), supported by a verifiable roadmap and active community, may become the "hot spots" in the marginal sectors.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flood irrigation" betting mindset and shift towards a hybrid strategy of "anchored by the core, winged by events". Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the banner, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators—each part must correspond to different position weights and trading rhythms.

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is on the way.

Each cycle of bull and bear markets is essentially a periodic reshuffling of value reassessment. Real wealth migration often occurs quietly amidst chaos. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing.

The role of Bitcoin has fundamentally changed. It is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises, serving as a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of U.S. ETFs has altered the previous "miner-exchange-retail" chip structure, creating an underlying capital reservoir.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are also completing their evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover". Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and restaked bonds, which represent crypto assets, are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets."

The season of imitation has changed. The "全面普涨" (comprehensive bull run) characterized by meme resonance and blockchain game linkage seen in 2021 will not be repeated. The next market cycle will be more deeply tied to three major anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable funds through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly possess RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" of the new cycle.

For ordinary investors, the current market appearance still seems stagnant, but this is precisely the golden period when large funds quietly complete their positions. The key lies in standing on the right structure and grasping the main upward trend through the reconstruction of position structure rather than relying on the randomness of aggressive speculation.

The third quarter of 2025 will be the prelude to this wealth migration. The next bull run will not ring a bell for anyone; it will only reward those who think ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the peak, but will quietly transfer before dawn.