The New Cycle of the Crypto Market Reshaped by the Macroeconomic Landscape

1. Reconstruction of Asset Pricing Paths Based on Global Macro Variables

In the second half of 2025, the global financial market will enter a new stage dominated by macro variables. The three pillars that supported traditional asset pricing over the past decade - liquidity easing, globalization collaboration, and technology dividends - are undergoing a systematic reversal, leading to a profound reshaping of capital market pricing logic. As a frontier reflection of global liquidity and risk appetite, crypto assets are driven by new variables in their price trends, funding structure, and asset weights, with key components including:

1. Structural inflation becoming sticky. Core inflation remains above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. After the decline in energy prices, factors such as increased capital expenditure brought about by artificial intelligence and automation, rising prices of rare metals in the green energy transition, and the return of manufacturing leading to increased labor costs have become sources of endogenous inflation.

2. The structural weakness of dollar credit. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, facing the challenge of decentralization of its global settlement center status. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India are promoting local currency settlement mechanisms, partially replacing dollar settlements. Digital assets have become a neutral, programmable, and de-sovereignized alternative medium of value.

3. Institutional differentiation in global capital flows. The traditional financial system is facing stricter regulations and valuation bottlenecks, which restrict the expansion of institutional funds, while the encryption field is entering the "legitimacy of compliance systems" stage. Multiple asset management companies have been approved to launch crypto asset-themed ETFs, with funds indirectly entering the blockchain through financial channels.

The changes in these macro variables are driving the onset of a new pricing era. Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, are transitioning from a liquidity bubble phase to a stage of institutional value adoption, becoming direct beneficiaries of the restructuring at the margins of the macro monetary system.

II. The Institutional Logic and Diffusion Trends of Coin-Stock Strategies

The most structural force of change in the crypto market in 2025 comes from the rise of the "coin-stock strategy." From MicroStrategy's early attempts to more and more listed companies disclosing their allocation of crypto assets, this model has evolved into a corporate strategic behavior with institutional embeddedness. The coin-stock strategy not only connects the capital market with the flow of on-chain assets but also gives rise to a new paradigm in corporate financial reports, equity pricing, financing structures, and even valuation logic.

As of the end of July, more than 35 listed companies worldwide have explicitly incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, with 13 also allocating ETH, and 5 attempting to allocate mainstream altcoins such as SOL, AVAX, and FET. The common feature of this structural allocation is: to build a financing closed loop through capital market mechanisms, while using encryption assets to enhance the company's book value and shareholder expectations, thereby boosting valuation and capital expansion capabilities, forming a positive feedback loop.

The institutional environmental changes supporting this trend include:

1. The bill that will take effect in July 2025 provides a clear compliance path for listed companies to allocate encryption assets, allowing them to be counted as "digital goods" included in long-term assets or cash equivalents.

2. The coin-stock strategy creates unprecedented financing flexibility. Companies allocating encryption assets can benefit from a valuation premium brought about by rising stock prices, achieving higher price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios, and can also use encryption assets as collateral to participate in on-chain lending and other new financial operations.

3. Changes in investor behavior patterns. The market is repricing the valuation models of these companies, and stock prices exhibit a highly correlated movement with cryptocurrency prices. An increasing number of hedge funds are viewing "high coin-weighted" stocks as alternatives to ETFs or as proxy tools for exposure to crypto assets.

From a regulatory strategic perspective, the diffusion of the coin-stock strategy is also seen as an extension tool for the U.S. to maintain its "dollar hegemony" in the global financial order. As a bridge connecting on-chain assets with traditional finance, listed companies bear the market entry function of compliance, high frequency, and large-scale capital inflow capabilities.

As U.S. listed companies adopt crypto stock strategies, listed enterprises in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and emerging markets are also beginning to follow suit and seek compliance space. Countries like Singapore, the UAE, and Switzerland are actively revising relevant regulations to open institutional channels for their domestic companies to allocate encryption assets.

The institutionalization, standardization, and globalization of coin-stock strategies will be an important evolutionary direction for corporate financial strategies in the next three years, and will also be a key bridge for the deep integration of encryption assets and traditional finance.

3. Compliance Trends and Financial Structure Transformation

In 2025, the global crypto market is at a historical juncture where the wave of institutionalization is accelerating. The role of regulation has evolved from "enforcer" to "institution designer" and "market guide." With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin legislation, and the initiation of accounting standard reforms, the trend towards compliance has become an endogenous driving force for the transformation of financial structures, and crypto assets are being embedded in the institutional network of the mainstream financial system.

The core manifestation of the trend of institutionalization is:

1. Clarification of regulatory framework and gradual relaxation. The United States has successively passed multiple bills, clearly defining everything from the identification of commodity attributes to the applicable boundaries of accounting standards.

2. Global financial centers are competing to promote localized institutional reforms. Singapore, Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi, and Switzerland have introduced multi-tiered licensing systems to establish clear thresholds for institutions to enter the market.

3. Profound changes in the intrinsic logic of financial structures. The proportion of encryption assets in the allocation strategies of large asset management institutions is increasing, financial products are becoming standardized and diversified, and the clearing and custody models are transforming.

4. Incorporating crypto assets into the macro-financial governance structure. Central banks in various countries adopt an open management approach of "neutral custody + strong KYC" for certain compliant stablecoins, allowing them to undertake international settlement and payment clearing functions within a certain regulatory scope.

5. The evolution of the "system boundary" of encryption assets. The market forms three continuous levels of "on-chain assets --- compliant assets --- financial assets", each type of asset can enter the mainstream financial market through a certain institutional path.

From a macro perspective, the institutionalization of encryption assets is the stress adaptation and evolution of the global financial structure under the digital wave. In the next three years, three coexistence models will emerge in major economies around the world: the "market openness + prudent regulation" model led by the United States, the "restricted access + policy guidance" model represented by China, Japan, and South Korea, and the "financial intermediary experimental zone" model represented by Singapore and others.

IV. Conclusion

In July 2025, Ethereum will celebrate its tenth anniversary, and the crypto market will have transitioned from early experimentation to institutional recognition. The widespread launch of coin-stock strategies symbolizes a deep integration between traditional finance and crypto assets. This cycle is not only about market initiation but also about restructuring and re-logic. In the next 2-3 years, the crypto market will evolve into a three-fold structure of "on-chain native yield + compliant financial interfaces + stablecoin-driven." Coin-stock strategies are just the prologue; a more profound integration of capital and evolution of governance models are just beginning.