美联储这个夏天将保持现状。6月没有降息，7月也没有降息。我们相信，在观看了美国和中国周一发布的联合声明后，这就是中央银行的立场，两个国家都声称他们希望缓解贸易紧张关系。
一旦那是一个

中央银行

美联储这个夏天保持不变。6 月没有降息，7 月也没有降息。我们相信这是中央银行的立场，因为我们观察到美国和中国在周一发布的联合声明中，两国声称他们希望缓解贸易紧张关系。

一旦宣布这一消息，主要的华尔街银行和交易员就降低了他们对快速降息的预期。他们现在表示，第一次降息可能要等到九月份，甚至在那时，也仅在情况真的变糟的情况下才会发生。

你看，特朗普复兴了就业和华尔街，所以经济并没有陷入困境，而通货膨胀还没有降温到足以让美联储开始发放更便宜的信贷。

随着收益率飙升和风险偏好增加，交易者们开始退缩

今年押注三次降息的交易者已经退缩。现在市场只预计2025年降息两次，掉期合约显示美联储可能只降低55个基点的利率，而不是上周五预期的75个基点。仅这一调整就动摇了债券市场。

两年期国债收益率在周一上涨了12个基点，重新回到4%以上，这一波动总是对美联储的举动作出反应。投资者意识到中央银行不会仅仅因为华尔街的要求而采取行动，这一飙升随之而来。

降息预期的下降也使得美国国债的吸引力降低。另一方面，股票上涨。因此，资金又开始追逐风险。

自上周美联储会议以来，他们决定不采取任何行动，收益率迅速上升。两年期收益率上升超过40个基点，从3.55%升至超过4%。五年期收益率也有所波动，从3.85%升至4.11%。这是债券市场的明确讯息：至少目前没有更多的宽松货币。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔告诉记者，中央银行正在关注新的贸易政策如何影响通货膨胀和经济增长，然后再采取行动。他明确表示，数据中没有显示经济崩溃的迹象。

鲍威尔无视特朗普的压力，专注于通胀

即使市场降温，总统唐纳德·特朗普仍然希望采取行动。就在昨天，总统在Truth Social上发帖，呼吁降低利率。但和往常一样，他生活在自己独特的数据中。特朗普说：

“没有通货膨胀，汽油、能源、杂货和几乎所有其他东西的价格都在下降！！！美联储必须像欧洲和中国那样降低利率。太迟的鲍威尔有什么问题？对准备蓬勃发展的美国不公平？就让一切发生吧，这将是一件美好的事情！”

诚然，某些商品如食品和能源的价格出现了下跌，这主要是由于石油生产增加和全球增长疲软所致。这些领域的四月份价格与三月份相比有所下降。但总体通胀虽然远低于其峰值，仍然高于美联储2%的目标。这就是他们不急于采取行动的原因。

杰克·美元海德，长弓资产管理公司的首席执行官表示：“人们担心关税会推高通货膨胀，虽然它们可能仍然会这样，但今天的数据至少让投资者感到宽慰，通货膨胀仍在朝着正确的方向发展。”

但是，雷蒙德·詹姆斯的经济学家并不相信现在是削减的时候。他们写道，关于关税政策的不确定性以及这些政策如何影响通货膨胀的持续存在，足以使美联储不采取任何行动。

风险很简单：如果过早降息，通货膨胀可能会更强劲地回归。美联储官员认为在通货膨胀未得到控制之前降低利率是一个危险的举动。这可能导致价格进一步上涨，从而拖累实际经济增长。

EY的首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示，他们的团队不得不改变自己的预测。“由于对贸易政策的最终现状缺乏清晰度，而美联储政策制定者不太可能预先应对任何增长或通胀的发展，我们现在只预计将进行两次美联储降息(，而不是三次)，并且相信第一次降息将在九月(而不是七月)，”他说。

The Federal Reserve is staying put this summer. No cuts in June, no cuts in July. We believe that’s the central bank’s position after watching the joint statement issued on Monday by the United States and China, were both countries claimed they want to ease off trade tensions.
As soon as that was a

The Federal Reserve is staying put this summer. No cuts in June, no cuts in July. We believe that’s the central bank’s position after watching the joint statement issued on Monday by the United States and China, were both countries claimed they want to ease off trade tensions.

As soon as that was announced, major Wall Street banks and traders dropped their expectations for a quick rate cut. They’re now saying the first one might not even come until September, and even then, only if things actually get worse.

You see, Trump has revived employment and Wall Street, so the economy isn’t in trouble, and inflation hasn’t cooled enough for anyone at the Fed to start handing out cheaper credit.

Traders step back as yields jump and risk appetite grows

Traders who were betting on three rate cuts this year have backed off. Now the market is pricing in just two cuts for 2025, with swap contracts showing the Fed might only drop rates by 55 basis points, instead of the 75 they expected just last Friday. That adjustment alone rattled the bond market.

The two-year Treasury yield, which always reacts to moves from the Fed, jumped 12 basis points on Monday, pushing back above 4%. That spike came after investors realized the central bank isn’t going to act just because Wall Street wants it to 

The drop in rate-cut bets also made US Treasuries less attractive. Stocks, on the other hand, went up. So the money started chasing risk again.

Since last week’s Fed meeting, where they decided to do nothing, yields have gone up fast. The two-year yield climbed more than 40 basis points, from 3.55% to over 4%. The five-year yield also moved, going from 3.85% to 4.11%. That’s a clear message from the bond market: no more easy money, at least for now.

Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, told reporters that the central bank is watching how new trade policies affect inflation and growth before doing anything. He made it clear there’s nothing in the data that shows the economy is falling apart.

Powell ignores Trump’s pressure, stays focused on inflation

Even with the market cooling off, president Donald Trump wants action. Just yesterday, the president posted on Truth Social, calling for lower rates. But as usual, he is living in his own unique set of data. Trump said:

“No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done. What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!”

Admittedly, there was a drop in prices for some things, like food and energy, which have been sliding due to higher oil production and weaker global growth. April prices in those areas fell compared to March. But overall inflation, even though it’s way down from its peak, is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target. That’s why they’re not rushing.

Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, said, “There’s been a fear that tariffs are going to push inflation higher, and they may still, but today’s data at least gives investors a sense of relief that inflation is still moving in the right direction.”

But Raymond James economists aren’t convinced it’s time to cut. They wrote that ongoing uncertainty around tariff policies and how they’ll affect inflation is enough to keep the Fed from making any moves.

The risk is simple: cut too early, and inflation might come back even stronger. Fed officials believe lowering rates before inflation is under control is a dangerous move. It could lead to even more price increases, and that would drag down real economic growth.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said their team had to change their own forecast. “With little clarity on the final status quo for trade policy and Fed policymakers unlikely to preempt any growth or inflation developments, we now only anticipate two Fed rate cuts (instead of three), and believe the first rate cut will come in September (instead of July),” he said.

Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates in June or July as it sees no need to bail the economy

美联储在6月或7月不会降息，因为它认为没有必要救助经济

中国在周一对英国和美国的新签署贸易协议提出批评，指责这两个国家故意设计该协议，以将中国商品排除在英国供应链之外。
北京外交部发出的警告是在特朗普宣布之后发布的

供应链

中国在周一对英国和美国的新签署贸易协议提出了批评，指责这两个国家故意设计该协议以排挤中国商品进入英国供应链。

北京外交部发出的警告是在特朗普政府宣布自上个月推出“互惠关税”广泛计划以来的首个正式贸易协议之后发布的。

这项交易涉及对英国钢铁和制药行业的严格安全要求，已经对伦敦重建与北京关系的努力造成了压力，这是首相基尔·斯塔默爵士政府在最近几个月中悄然努力的目标。

根据《金融时报》，北京对有关交易的问题回应称：“国家之间的合作不应以损害第三方利益为代价。”这一信息由中国外交部直接发布，明确表示该国认为“第三方”是谁。

美英协议使得英国更加深陷于两个经济强国的交火之中。对于北京来说，英国选择接受协议的条件——特别是与供应链安全和生产设施所有权相关的条件——看起来像是选择站在华盛顿一边的决定。

中国视特朗普的条款为直接攻击

贸易协定的结构包括对英国钢铁和汽车出口的行业特定救助，但前提是英国同意特朗普的条件。这意味着如果伦敦不通过一系列安全测试，英国商品的基准10%关税将继续存在。

这些测试属于第232条调查，这些调查旨在检查进口商品是否威胁到美国国家安全。但英国官员向《金融时报》确认，特朗普本人明确表示，这些规定旨在对抗中国。

美国总统一直在利用第232条作为施压其他政府的武器。在这种情况下，英国获得了一些缓解——但前提是它帮助阻止中国进入全球供应线路。北京认为，这一策略是为了迫使其他国家采取特朗普的反华立场。

北京没有等待上市。官员们再次警告，贸易协议绝不能用来攻击第三国。这个警告并不模糊。这是对美英协议的直接反应，北京方面表示该协议威胁到其在英国市场的地位。

中国通过政策和关税调整应对贸易紧张局势

虽然中国对英美交易提出了批评，但它也迅速调整了自己的政策。官员们已经在推动将外国组件剔除出中国供应链，以更广泛的努力来减少对外部压力的依赖。由于特朗普的关税与双边协议挂钩，这一推动力现在只会加速。

尽管如此，北京也在努力降低其他方面的紧张局势。周一，美国和中国同意在更广泛的贸易战中达成为期90天的停战协议。作为协议的一部分，华盛顿将对中国进口商品的关税从145%降低到约40%。

如果双方达成协议，停止从中国向美国出口芬太尼前体，这些关税可能再次降低，幅度可达20个百分点，使其接近特朗普目前对英国等美国盟友所施加的关税水平。

北京也在降低自己的压力。它宣布削减对美国商品的报复性关税，包括能源和农业产品，从125%降至仅10%。这一举措旨在保持沟通渠道开放——并防止再次升级——同时中国正在思考如何处理像英国这样似乎在顺应特朗普条件的国家。

但伦敦的后果已经显而易见。英国政府在一份声明中表示，为了“确保关键行业数千个工作岗位，保护英国企业，并为未来更大的贸易奠定基础”，该协议已经签署。

政府还声称，与中国的贸易和投资对英国仍然重要，并且英国“在根植于英国和全球利益的领域继续务实地参与”。北京是否接受这种解释仍不清楚。可以确定的是，中国现在将英国视为特朗普经济战略中的另一个参与者，而不是一个中立的伙伴。

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China called out the UK and the United States on Monday over their newly signed trade deal, accusing both countries of deliberately designing the pact to edge Chinese goods out of British supply chains 
The warning, issued by Beijing’s foreign ministry, followed the announcement of the Trump

China called out the UK and the United States on Monday over their newly signed trade deal, accusing both countries of deliberately designing the pact to edge Chinese goods out of British supply chains 

The warning, issued by Beijing’s foreign ministry, followed the announcement of the Trump administration’s first formal trade agreement since it rolled out a sweeping plan for “reciprocal tariffs” last month.

The deal, which involves intense security requirements for the UK’s steel and pharmaceutical sectors, is already straining London’s attempts to rebuild relations with Beijing, a goal that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government had been quietly working toward in recent months.

According to the Financial Times, Beijing responded to questions about the deal by saying, “Co-operation between states should not be conducted against or to the detriment of the interests of third parties.” The message, issued directly by China’s foreign ministry, made it clear who the country thinks the “third party” is.

The US–UK agreement has pushed the UK deeper into the crossfire of two economic powerhouses. And for Beijing, the UK’s choice to accept the deal’s conditions — especially ones tied to supply chain security and ownership of production facilities — looks like a decision to side with Washington.

China sees Trump’s clauses as direct attack

The structure of the trade pact includes sector-specific relief for UK steel and car exports, but only if the UK agrees to Trump’s conditions. That means accepting a baseline 10 percent tariff on British goods stays in place unless London passes a series of security tests.

These tests fall under Section 232 investigations, which are supposed to check whether imported goods threaten US national security. But UK officials confirmed to the Financial Times that Donald Trump himself made it clear that these rules were meant to counter China.

The US president has been using Section 232 as a weapon to pressure other governments. In this case, the UK was offered some relief — but only if it helps block China from global supply routes. That strategy, Beijing believes, is about forcing other countries to adopt Trump’s anti-China stance.

Beijing didn’t wait to go public. Officials warned again that trade agreements should never be used to attack third countries. That warning wasn’t vague. It was a direct reaction to the US–UK deal, which Beijing says threatens its position in British markets.

China counters trade tension with policy and tariff shifts

While China called out the UK–US deal, it also moved fast to adjust its own policy. Officials have already been pushing to strip foreign components out of Chinese supply chains in a broader effort to reduce exposure to outside pressure. That push has only accelerated now that Trump’s tariffs are being tied to bilateral deals.

Still, Beijing is also trying to lower tensions on other fronts. On Monday, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce in their wider trade war. As part of that deal, Washington dropped tariffs on Chinese imports from 145 percent down to around 40 percent.

If both sides reach a deal to stop the export of fentanyl precursors from China to the US, those tariffs could drop again by up to 20 percentage points, bringing them closer to the levels Trump currently applies to US allies like the UK.

Beijing is also lowering the heat on its end. It announced cuts to its own retaliatory tariffs on US goods, including energy and agricultural products, from 125 percent to just 10 percent. That move is meant to keep lines open — and prevent another escalation — while China figures out how to deal with countries like the UK that appear to be going along with Trump’s terms.

But the fallout in London is already obvious. The UK government, trying to control the damage, said in a statement that the deal was signed “to secure thousands of jobs across key sectors, protect British businesses and lay the groundwork for greater trade in the future.”

The government also claimed that trade and investment with China remain important to the UK, and that Britain is “continuing to engage pragmatically in areas that are rooted in UK and global interests.” Whether Beijing buys that explanation is still unclear. What’s certain is that China now views the UK as another player in Trump’s economic strategy, not a neutral partner.

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China slams UK–US trade pact, says it targets Chinese goods

中国抨击英美贸易协议，称其针对中国商品

老特周二解除对叙利亚的所有美国制裁。他正在考虑对伊朗采取类似的宽松措施，前提是伊朗接受其核计划的限制，在沙特首都的演讲中，他将自己定位为“商业，而非混乱”的调解者。
老特对一群海湾领导人说

TRUMP

WORK

老特周二解除对叙利亚的所有美国制裁。他正在考虑对伊朗提供类似的宽松政策，前提是伊朗接受对其核计划的限制，在沙特首都的演讲中，他将自己定位为“商业，而非混乱”的调解者。

老特对一群海湾领导人和商界领袖表示，针对叙利亚的行动旨在给大马士革“一个伟大的机会。”

老特在沙特-美国投资论坛。来源：美联社

根据《政治报》报道，特朗普表示，这一决定是在土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安和沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的鼓励下做出的，他们坐在前排。总统说：“哦，我为王储做了什么。”

在谈到伊朗时，特朗普宣称德黑兰“永远不会拥有核武器”，但还是伸出了他所谓的“橄榄枝”。他说，一项缩减伊朗核工作的新协议可能会解除经济制裁。“伊朗可以有一个更光明的未来，”他说。“选择权在他们自己。”

他警告说，这个提议“不会永远有效”，并承诺如果谈判失败将施加“最大压力”。“事情进展得非常快，”他说。“所以他们必须采取行动。”

这些言论是在老特在利雅得的第一天之后发表的，他早些时候会见了投资者，并称赞了沙特向美国项目承诺的6000亿美元资金流入。

他将这个王国描述为一个充满发展和无限潜力的地方，并表示新一代阿拉伯领导者正在“超越古老的冲突”，这些冲突曾阻碍该地区的发展。

老特表示西方国家建设对更多国家造成了伤害，而不是帮助。

在阐述这一愿景时，老特将自己与过去的美国政府进行了对比，这些政府将外交政策与传播民主联系在一起。

在没有提到前总统乔治·W·布什的情况下，他拒绝了与伊拉克入侵相关的国家建设方法。“

他表示：“对于更广泛的世界来说，至关重要的是要注意，这场伟大的转变并不是来自西方干预者飞来对如何生活或如何管理自己事务进行讲座。”他补充道，“所谓的‘国家建设者’摧毁的国家远比他们建设的要多。”

即使在摆脱那段历史的同时，老特表示美国准备推进新的外交政策。

他提到了可能涉及伊朗、黎巴嫩和叙利亚的会谈，并表示他希望沙特阿拉伯有一天能加入亚伯拉罕协议，与以色列实现关系正常化。他对王储说：“我真的认为这将是一些特别的事情，但你们会在自己的时间里做到。”

关于伊朗，老特重申其领导人“窃取人民的财富以资助海外的恐怖和流血”，但表示华盛顿准备提供“新出路”。他说：“正如我多次表明的那样，我愿意结束过去的冲突并建立新的伙伴关系，以创造一个更好、更稳定的世界，即使我们的分歧可能非常深刻。”

老特强调了他调解俄罗斯与乌克兰之间关系的努力。

他说伊斯坦布尔可以在星期四举办乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京之间的会谈。

由于普京的出席尚不确定，老特将继续前往卡塔尔和阿联酋，而是派遣特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥参加土耳其会议，白宫官员表示。

老特提到了与伊朗支持的胡塞武装达成的最近停火，此前在红海进行了近两个月的冲突。他说：“我们狠狠打击了他们。我们得到了我们想要的，然后就撤退了。”

他在演讲开头回顾了他上任的前几个月，提到了限制移民、削减规定以及与英国和中国达成贸易协议的步骤。他说：“我们正在火热发展，美国是最火热的国家。”说完这句话，他停顿了一下赞扬他的东道主。“除了你们国家，”他补充道。“你们更火热。”

老特为期一周的巡回活动将带他前往卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国，可能还有埃及，旨在寻求更多的投资承诺和对其外交议程的支持。

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President Donald Trump on Tuesday lifted all United States sanctions on Syria. He is considering similar relief for Iran if it accepts limits on its nuclear program, pitching himself as a broker of “commerce, not chaos” during a speech in the Saudi capital.
Trump told an audience of Gulf leaders an

President Donald Trump on Tuesday lifted all United States sanctions on Syria. He is considering similar relief for Iran if it accepts limits on its nuclear program, pitching himself as a broker of “commerce, not chaos” during a speech in the Saudi capital.

Trump told an audience of Gulf leaders and business chiefs that the move on Syria is meant to give Damascus “a chance at greatness.”

Trump at Saudi-US Investment Forum. Source: Associated Press

According to Politico, Trump said the decision came after encouragement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who sat in the front row. “Oh, what I do for the crown prince,” the president said.

Turning to Iran, Trump declared that Tehran “will never have a nuclear weapon,” yet offered what he called “an olive branch.” He said a new deal to scale back Iran’s atomic work could lift economic sanctions. “Iran can have a much brighter future,” he said. “The choice is theirs to make.”

He warned that the offer “will not last forever” and promised “maximum pressure” if talks fail. “Things are happening at a very fast pace,” he said. “So they have to make their move.”

The remarks came after Trump’s first day in Riyadh, where he had earlier met investors and hailed a promised USD 600 billion flow of Saudi money into U.S. projects.

He described the kingdom as a place of growth and limitless potential and said a new generation of Arab leaders is “transcending the ancient conflicts” that held the area back.

Trump said Western nation‑building has hurt more countries than it helped

In setting out this vision, Trump contrasted himself with past American administrations that tied foreign policy to spreading democracy.

Without naming former President George W. Bush, he rejected the nation‑building approach linked to the Iraq invasion. “

It is crucial for the wider world to note, this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists flying in with lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs,” he said. The “so‑called ‘nation‑builders,’” he added, “wrecked far more nations than they built.”

Even while stepping away from that history, Trump said the United States is ready to push new diplomacy.

He spoke of talks that could involve Iran, Lebanon and Syria and said he hopes to see Saudi Arabia someday join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel. “I really think it’s going to be something special, but you’ll do it in your own time,” he told the crown prince.

On Iran, Trump repeated that its leaders “steal their people’s wealth to fund terror and bloodshed abroad,” yet said Washington is ready to offer “a new path.” “As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be very profound,” he said.

Trump highlighted his bid to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.

He said Istanbul could host talks on Thursday between Ukrainian President Volodymyr  Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

With Putin’s attendance uncertain, Trump will keep to visits in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and will instead send Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the Turkish meeting, a White House official said.

Trump pointed to a recent cease‑fire with Iran‑backed Houthi fighters after nearly two months of clashes in the Red Sea. “We hit them hard. We got what we came for, and then we got out,” he said.

He opened his address with a recap of his first months in office, citing steps to curb immigration, cut rules, and strike trade pacts with the United Kingdom and China. “We are rocking, the United States is the hottest country,” he said before pausing to praise his hosts. “With the exception of your country,” he added. “You’re hotter.”

Trump’s week‑long tour will take him to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and possibly Egypt as he seeks more investment pledges and support for his diplomatic agenda.

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