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The IMF did not kill Bitcoin.
Original Author: Daniel Batten
Original compilation: Luffy, Foresight News
In recent years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been weaving a network to curb the development of Bitcoin through a series of measures:
The following is the summary table:
As we can see, the only countries that can resist the pressure from the IMF are El Salvador (before 2025), which has not received IMF loans, and Bhutan. Every country that has accepted IMF loans and tried to adopt Bitcoin at the national level has been successfully thwarted or largely defeated by the IMF.
Why has the IMF been so successful in preventing countries around the world from adopting Bitcoin (except for Bhutan)? And why is it so proactive?
In this detailed report, we will analyze three countries where the IMF has successfully resisted Bitcoin adoption, and indicate that similar outcomes may be achieved in Pakistan. In the final part of this report, we discuss five concerns the IMF has regarding Bitcoin, and how, despite various nation-states abandoning or partially abandoning Bitcoin from the top down, Bitcoin continues to thrive at the grassroots level.
1. Central African Republic: When Colonial Currency Meets Digital Hope
This control over foreign exchange reserves has led to economic dependency, while also establishing a favorable export market for French goods. For example, in 1994, under pressure from the West (especially the IMF), the CFA was devalued by 50%, causing import costs to soar, and exporters (mainly EU exporters) could obtain resources from CFA countries at half price. Locally, this impact was devastating, leading to widespread wage freezes, layoffs, and large-scale social unrest.
When the Central African Republic announced in 2022 the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, BEAC and its regulatory body, the Central African Republic Business Advisory Council, immediately declared the law void on the grounds that it violated the treaty establishing the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. This is not bureaucracy, but a warning from the guardians of the "Francafrique" currency.
Why is it important? To this day, the economy of the Central African Republic heavily relies on IMF assistance, and its external debt of $1.7 billion (61% of GDP) means that defying BEAC will face the risk of financial isolation.
The IMF's Quiet Actions
The IMF acted swiftly. On May 4, 2022, within two weeks, the IMF publicly condemned the "dangerous experiment" in the Central African Republic, stating that it had legal contradictions with the cryptocurrency ban of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. The IMF indicated that this move posed "significant legal, transparency, and economic policy challenges," similar to previous concerns about El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin: risks to financial stability, consumer protection, and fiscal liabilities (notably, these risks have not materialized in El Salvador).
But their real weapon is leverage. As the largest creditor of the Central African Republic, the IMF has linked the new $191 million medium-term credit arrangement to policy compliance.
Timeline Revealed
The table traces the behind-the-scenes actions of the IMF:
The key to undermining the Central African Republic's Bitcoin ambitions is to ensure that the Sango project (a blockchain initiative launched by the Central African Republic government aimed at selling "electronic residency" and citizenship for $60,000 in Bitcoin) does not proceed.
Sango project, coincidence or conspiracy?
In July 2022, the Central African Republic launched the Sango project, aiming to raise $2.5 billion, equivalent to the country's annual GDP.
The Sango project was unsuccessful. By January 2023, it had only raised $2 million (0.2% of the target). The IMF reported that the reason for failure was the "technological barriers of an internet penetration rate of only 10%", but our analysis reached a completely different conclusion. Two factors destroyed the Sango project:
However, a closer examination suggests the involvement of the IMF in both factors.
Investors flee
The role of the IMF in this process is indirect, but compelling.
The timing of these IMF statements coincides with the observed investor exodus, indicating that its cautious stance as an authoritative financial institution may have influenced market perceptions among the investor community.
Supreme Court Ruling
On the surface, the Supreme Court ruling appears to be an independent event, but a closer examination reveals doubts about the independence of the Central African Republic's judicial system — the country's corruption perception index ranks 149/180 (extremely low).
As mentioned earlier, one week after the Central African Republic announced its Bitcoin strategy, on May 4, 2022, the IMF expressed "concerns," including risks to financial stability, transparency, anti-money laundering efforts, and challenges in macroeconomic policy management due to volatility.
On August 29, 2022, the CAR Supreme Court ruled that the Sango project was illegal. International transparency organizations (such as Gan Integrity) stated that the Supreme Court, which is part of the Central African Republic's judicial system, is one of the most corrupt institutions in the country, facing issues such as inefficiency, political interference, and possible influence from bribery or political pressure.
The collapse of the Sango project became the IMF's "Evidence A": "proving that Bitcoin cannot operate in fragile economies." But the reality is that the "concerns" repeatedly expressed by the IMF prematurely undermined the project environment, making this conclusion possible.
5,200 miles away, in the small country of Bhutan, we witnessed a completely different scene: Bitcoin successfully took root without the "involvement" of the IMF.
An obvious conclusion: Bitcoin's resilience transcends borders
The reversal in the Central African Republic is not related to the feasibility of Bitcoin, but rather concerns power. The IMF cut off the capital sources of the Central African Republic using regional banking alliances and leveraged a $191 million loan to eliminate the threat to financial sovereignty. When the Sango project ran into trouble, the trap was suddenly closed.
However, this failure also reveals the enduring power of Bitcoin. Note what the IMF failed to destroy:
The model is clear: where grassroots adoption takes root, Bitcoin can survive. However, countries that announce top-down Bitcoin plans while carrying large IMF loans have all faced overwhelming resistance: El Salvador, Central African Republic, Argentina, and now Pakistan.
The $115.1 million outstanding IMF loan balance for Africa subjects it to IMF pressure. In countries like Bhutan, which have no IMF loans, Bitcoin slips through the IMF's fingers. Every peer-to-peer payment and every Lightning Network transaction erodes the foundations of the old system.
The IMF has won this round in the Central African Republic, but the struggle for global financial sovereignty has only just begun.
2. The $45 billion Bitcoin adoption barrier in Argentina
If the Bitcoin plan in China-Africa Cooperation was thwarted, Argentina has never even started. President Milei's statements before the election hinted at significant actions, but ultimately there was no progress at all. Is this just politicians' empty talk during elections, or is there something more behind it? This section will unveil the truth behind the failure of Argentina's Bitcoin plan.
Understanding the progress of Bitcoin adoption is like assessing whether a rocket can reach escape velocity: we must examine both thrust and resistance.
I am an optimist: I believe Bitcoin will win because it is clearly a better solution to our currently broken fiat currency system. But I am also a realist: I think most people underestimate the power of the conservative forces against Bitcoin.
When I was running a tech company, we encountered the same situation. Our technology was 10 times better than traditional systems, faster and more cost-effective, but they were not willing to easily give up their existing monopoly.
What happened in Argentina?
When the liberal Javier Milei was elected president of Argentina in November 2023, many Bitcoin advocates cheered. This leader called central bank officials "frauds," vowed to abolish the Argentine central bank, and praised Bitcoin as a "natural response to central bank frauds." This case became a litmus test for whether Bitcoin could gain mainstream recognition through government adoption rather than grassroots growth.
But 18 months into his presidency, Milei's vision for Bitcoin has yet to be realized. What is the reason? The IMF's $45 billion fund controls the development of Bitcoin in the country.
IMF's veto power in Argentina
Restrictions had already been in place when Milei was elected. On March 3, 2022, the former Argentine government signed a $45 billion IMF rescue agreement. In the following weeks, details revealed that the agreement included an unusual clause: a requirement to "prevent the use of cryptocurrencies." This was not a suggestion but a condition of the loan recorded in the IMF's letter of intent, which mentioned concerns about "financial disintermediation."
Direct Impact:
Mile's Turn
After Miley took office:
But the core proposals in his declaration (Bitcoin adoption and the abolition of central banks) are noticeably absent. The reason is simple: Argentina owes more to the IMF than any other country, giving the IMF unparalleled leverage.
However, the case of Argentina is ironic: despite the IMF's efforts to prevent official Bitcoin adoption, Argentinians are still embracing Bitcoin. From 2023 to 2024, cryptocurrency holdings in South America grew by 116.5%, with Argentina having the highest holding rate in the region at 18.9%, nearly three times the global average. This ratio has significantly increased due to citizens hedging against a high annual inflation rate of 47.3% (April 2025). This is a quiet resistance that the International Monetary Fund cannot control.
What will happen next?
All eyes are focused on the midterm elections in October 2025. If Milei gains support, he may challenge the red line of the IMF. But for now, the lesson is clear: when a country borrows from the IMF, its monetary sovereignty is restricted.
Key Points
3. El Salvador: A Partial Victory for the IMF
The Cost of Rescue
To obtain a loan in 2024, El Salvador has agreed to abolish the key pillar of its Bitcoin policy:
Buckler's strategic retreat
The compromise in El Salvador has fiscal significance:
However, considering Buckler's remarks in 2021, this regression is shocking. The low usage rate of the Chivo wallet may have driven its concessions.
What is left in the experiment?
The IMF has not killed Bitcoin in El Salvador, it has only stifled official adoption. Grassroots usage continues to exist:
But without national support, at least in the short term, Bitcoin's role may shrink to that of a niche tool rather than a monetary revolution.
The Road to the Future
There are two scenarios for the future of Bitcoin in El Salvador:
One thing is very clear: when the IMF writes a check, it also sets the rules.
Key Points
El Salvador has made many concessions on the issue of Bitcoin. While it can be argued that this does not harm El Salvador much, it sends a strong signal to other Latin American countries, such as Ecuador and Guatemala, which have been observing El Salvador and considering replicating its strategy (until they verify the scale of their own IMF loans). Therefore, overall, this is a partial victory for the IMF and also a partial victory for El Salvador.
4. Bhutan: A Success Story of Breaking Free from IMF Constraints
The IMF warns that countries embracing Bitcoin will undermine economic stability, reduce the efficiency of attracting foreign direct investment, and jeopardize decarbonization and environmental initiatives. It specifically expresses concerns about Bhutan's cryptocurrency adoption due to a "lack of transparency."
How does ### data say?
Given that the IMF's analysis is not only incorrect but also almost completely reverses right and wrong, this raises a question: Is the IMF's forecast based on data?
5 Reasons the IMF Might Be Concerned About Bitcoin
What if the biggest fear of the IMF is not inflation... but Bitcoin? Can Bitcoin break the debt control of the IMF/World Bank?
In my recent conversation with John Perkins (author of "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"), some things became clear. Alex Gladstein had previously pointed out that the IMF's "structural adjustments" did not eliminate poverty but rather made creditor countries richer. Perkins supplemented this with his own firsthand information.
Perkins revealed to me how the Southern Hemisphere has fallen into a debt cycle: a design aimed at directing wealth towards the West. But the turning point is that Bitcoin has dismantled this narrative in five key ways.
The sculpture of Chris Collins depicts the noose of debt.
Remittances (money sent home by migrant workers) usually account for a significant portion of GDP in developing countries. Traditional intermediaries like Western Union charge fees of up to 5-10%, which amounts to a hidden tax. In countries like El Salvador or Nigeria, central banks must hold dollars to stabilize their national currencies, and these dollar reserves are often provided by the IMF.
Bitcoin Changes the Game
With the Lightning Network, transaction fees are almost zero and transactions are instant. In 2021, El Salvador's President Bukele optimistically predicted that Bitcoin could save $400 million in remittance fees. However, the reality is that there is almost no evidence to suggest that remittance fees using Bitcoin are close to this threshold. Nevertheless, its potential is evident: more Bitcoin remittances would lead to higher dollar reserves, thereby reducing the need for loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
No wonder the IMF mentioned Bitcoin 221 times in the loan conditions for El Salvador in 2025; they want to maintain their status as a relevant lending institution.
Bitcoin not only makes remittances cheaper but also completely bypasses the dollar system. In Nigeria, with the naira weakening, households are now holding Bitcoin as a harder asset than the local currency. There is no need for central banks to deplete dollar reserves or for IMF bailouts.
Numbers speak for themselves:
Currently, the application of Bitcoin has not yet been fully covered. Only 12% of Salvadorans regularly use Bitcoin, while over 5% of remittances in Nigeria are conducted via cryptocurrency. But the trend is evident: every Bitcoin transaction weakens the cycle of debt dependency.
The IMF has seen the threat. The question is: how quickly will this silent revolution spread?
In 2024, the total remittances to Nigeria will be close to $21 billion, accounting for over 4% of GDP.
2) Avoid sanctions and trade barriers
Oil-rich Iran, Venezuela, and Russia have been restricted in their access to US dollars due to American sanctions in 1979, 2017, and 2022 respectively, resulting in a significant reduction in oil exports.
Regardless of whether we agree with the ideologies of these countries, Bitcoin has broken this cycle. Iran has evaded sanctions by using Bitcoin to "export oil," while Venezuela uses Bitcoin to pay for imports, circumventing sanctions.
Iran is also circumventing sanctions by monetizing energy exports for mining, which avoids the IMF's "reform for cash" ultimatum while keeping the economy running. With Russia and Iran leading the way in Bitcoin oil trading, the control of petrodollars is weakening.
Another country that is using Bitcoin to avoid the economic difficulties caused by sanctions is Afghanistan, which conducts humanitarian aid through Bitcoin. Non-governmental organizations like "Incentive Code" have circumvented the Taliban's bank freezes, and the "Digital Citizen Fund" has used Bitcoin to provide assistance after the Taliban takeover, allowing some families to no longer go hungry.
Afghanistan's "Incentive Code" non-governmental organizations use Bitcoin donations that the Taliban cannot intercept to train women in software development.
Although Bitcoin's share in sanctioned trade is small, accounting for less than 2% of oil exports from Iran and Venezuela, the trend is on the rise.
Sanctions are a key tool of geopolitical leverage, often supported by the IMF and World Bank, as they align with major economies like the United States. Sanctioned countries use Bitcoin to reduce the IMF's control over the flow of funds, while threatening the dominance of the dollar.
3) Use Bitcoin as a national inflation shield
When countries like Argentina face hyperinflation, they borrow dollars from the IMF to support their foreign exchange reserves and stabilize their national currency. However, once they are unable to repay, they will ultimately face austerity measures or be forced to sell strategic assets at low prices. Bitcoin offers a way out, as it can serve as a global, non-inflationary currency that is not subject to government regulation and has the potential to appreciate.
El experimento de El Salvador demuestra que Bitcoin puede reducir la dependencia del dólar. Al poseer Bitcoin, el país puede cubrirse contra el colapso monetario sin necesidad de préstamos del FMI. Si Argentina hubiera asignado el 1% de sus reservas a Bitcoin en 2018, podría haber compensado más del 90% de la devaluación del peso ese año, evitando la asistencia del FMI. La neutralidad de Bitcoin también significa que no hay una entidad única que pueda imponer condiciones, a diferencia de los requisitos de préstamos del FMI que exigen privatizaciones o reformas impopulares. En cuanto a fomentar la adopción de Bitcoin, no tiene apalancamiento de deuda ni una larga historia del FMI de la cual aprender. Sin embargo, debido al efecto Lindy (ver la imagen a continuación), Bitcoin se está convirtiendo en una alternativa más viable cada año.
Lindy Effect: The longer something has been successful, the more likely it is to continue to be successful.
4) Bitcoin mining: Converting energy into debt-free wealth
Many developing countries are rich in energy but burdened by heavy debts,陷入 the quagmire of the IMF providing loans for infrastructure such as dams or power plants. When defaults occur, these loans require cheap energy exports or resource concessions. Bitcoin mining disrupts this model by converting stranded energy (such as flared natural gas or excess hydropower) into liquid wealth without the need for intermediaries or transportation costs.
Paraguay earns $50 million annually from hydropower mining, covering 5% of its trade deficit. Ethiopia made $55 million in 10 months. Bhutan is a standout: it possesses $1.1 billion in Bitcoin (36% of its $3.02 billion GDP), and by mid-2025, its hydropower mining could generate $1.25 billion in wealth annually, repaying its $403 million debt to the World Bank and $527 million to the Asian Development Bank. Unlike IMF loans, the value appreciation of mined Bitcoin can be used as collateral for non-IMF borrowings. This model of monetizing energy without relinquishing assets frightens the IMF, as it undermines its control over the energy sector.
Bhutan's Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay stated that Bitcoin is a "strategic choice to prevent brain drain."
5) Grassroots Bitcoin Economy: Bottom-up Forces
Bitcoin is not only suitable for countries but also for communities. In Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador or Bitcoin Ekasi in South Africa, locals have used Bitcoin for daily transactions, savings, and community projects like schools or clinics. These circular economies are often initiated by charitable efforts aimed at achieving self-sufficiency. In Argentina, inflation frequently exceeds 100%, and by 2021, 21% of people used cryptocurrency to protect their wealth. If these models are promoted, they could reduce dependence on national debt financing projects, which is certainly something the IMF would least like to see.
Hermann Vivier, the founder of Bitcoin Ekasi, stated that his community was inspired by the Bitcoin beach in El Salvador and has replicated their Bitcoin circular economy in South Africa.
Conclusion
By enhancing local resilience, Bitcoin weakens the IMF's "crisis leverage." Thriving communities do not require bailouts, so the IMF cannot demand privatization to repay loans. In Africa, projects like Gridless Energy have already helped 28,000 rural Africans escape energy poverty using renewable microgrids linked to Bitcoin mining, reducing the need for large projects supported by the IMF. If thousands of towns adopt this model, the dollar shortage will no longer matter, and trade can bypass the dollar system.
Although the IMF occasionally spreads misinformation about the energy consumption and environmental impact of Bitcoin to hinder its adoption, its more powerful tool is to leverage its financial influence over debtor countries to "encourage" compliance with its vision of a future without Bitcoin.
The IMF previously opposed El Salvador, the Central African Republic, and Argentina adopting Bitcoin. Now, they are opposing Pakistan's intention to mine Bitcoin as a nation-state. The expansion of these grassroots movements may force the IMF to take more direct measures.
Children in the poorest villages of South Africa learn to surf through the Bitcoin Ekasi project.
Grassroots Bitcoin economy empowers communities to thrive without IMF assistance. We need the power of the people to find new innovative ways to combat the blows from the IMF.