Whale money flow surged 42% – Is Toncoin about to exceed $3.28?

Toncoin (TON) is showing strong momentum with an impressive growth of 34% in the number of transactions just over the past week. Along with that, the number of new wallets joining the network has also increased by 29.63%, while the number of wallets with no balance entering the ecosystem has increased by an additional 23.08% — positive signals indicating that the TON ecosystem is gradually expanding.

As of the time of writing, TON is trading around $2.88, recording a daily increase of 1.38%. Although the number of active addresses has somewhat decreased by 3.76%, the growth momentum from other indicators shows an increasing attraction from the community of new users.

Overall, these developments not only reflect an increasing interest in TON but could also mark the beginning of a strong recovery cycle in line with long-term growth trends.

The bull appears at the support zone, but can TON overcome the resistance?

Toncoin is showing significant strength by continuously successfully defending the important support range of $2.60–$2.70, thereby establishing a fairly solid short-term bottom.

However, at the time of writing, the price is still being held down below the downtrend line, while the key Fibonacci levels at $3.15 and $3.28 continue to act as significant barriers to any recovery efforts.

These are the resistance levels that have repeatedly halted the upward momentum of TON over the past month, and they will be the key to a real breakout.

Source: TradingViewIf Toncoin can maintain a stable closing level above $3.28, the bullish momentum could be strengthened, opening up opportunities to reach the next milestones at $3.46 and $3.69. Until then, TON is still "stuck" in an increasingly narrowing accumulation zone – a significant test of investor patience and confidence in market trends.

TON whales return to the market with a surge in inflow of 42% this week

The net amount of money flowing in from large wallets has surged by 42.45% over the past 7 days – a clear sign that "whales" are significantly changing their strategy. This is an important market sentiment indicator, reflecting that high-value wallets are gradually returning after a long period of retreat.

Source: IntoTheBlockNotably, this timing coincides with the recovery rhythm of TON from the support zone, reinforcing the hypothesis that an accumulation process is quietly occurring during the current sideways phase.

If this trend continues, it could create the necessary liquidity foundation, helping the buying force break through the resistance level and open up a new growth cycle for TON.

DAA deviation exceeds 41% as fundamental factors grow faster than price

As of the time of writing, the DAA Divergence indicator has adjusted (Adjusted Price DAA Divergence) of Toncoin, recording a level of +41.32% — a signal indicating that the level of on-chain activity is increasing faster than the price volatility.

Source: SantimentTypically, this indicator reflects the intrinsic strength of the asset, especially when the actual demand from users increases but the price has not yet reflected that. The current positive divergence further reinforces the positive outlook for TON, as it indicates an increase in actual usage rather than merely being the result of speculative waves.

Combined with the stable growth trend of new wallet numbers and capital flows from "whales", the positive momentum in terms of addresses could serve as a launching pad for a breakout price increase, especially if the current resistance levels are soon conquered.

Active TON Derivatives: Are Traders Preparing for Major Volatility?

The derivative trading activity related to TON has witnessed a surge this week, with trading volume skyrocketing by 54.48%, reaching a milestone of 94.54 million USD. At the same time, the open interest index (OI) also recorded an increase of 4.83%, reaching 192.22 million USD – a sign that speculative sentiment is increasing strongly, along with confidence in clear directional movements in the market.

The combination of high trading volume and expanding open contracts is often a precursor to a vibrant price discovery phase, reflecting strong expectations of significant short-term volatility.

In the context of the spot market still maintaining support, along with increasingly positive on-chain fundamentals, the derivatives trading community seems to be betting on a potential breakout. If TON can surpass the upper resistance zone, current leveraged positions could fully amplify the upward momentum, igniting a wave of excitement in the market.

The focus is on the $3.28 mark as bullish pressure spreads across the market.

TON is sending impressive short-term recovery signals, supported by strong growth in trading, bullish divergence signals, inflows from whale wallets, and activity in the derivatives market.

However, the current price increase is still driven by speculative factors, unless the key resistance level at $3.28 is decisively and convincingly broken.

As long as this resistance level has not been conquered, the price outlook for TON still primarily leans towards a sideways trend. Nevertheless, the consensus between on-chain strength and demand from the trading market is painting a promising picture for the potential to expand the upward momentum.

If buying pressure continues to be maintained and can turn the resistance area into support, TON has a chance to regain upward momentum and move towards the target price range of $3.46–$3.69 in the upcoming trading sessions.

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